Kansas vs. Fresno State prediction, odds, start time: 2025 Week 0 college football picks by expert on 13-3 run

Programs coming off disappointing seven-loss seasons will look to start the 2025 college football season on a positive note on Saturday. The Kansas Jayhawks, who were 5-7 last year, will host the Fresno State Bulldogs, who finished 6-7 a year ago. The Jayhawks at least had a strong end to their 2024 season, winning four of their last six games, while Fresno struggled down the stretch in losing four of its last five and Kansas enters in on a four-game win streak in season openers. The Under was 7-6 for Fresno last season, while the Over was 6-5-1 for the Jayhawks in 2024.

Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET from David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kan. This Week 0 matchup will be the first ever meeting between the two programs. The Jayhawks are 13.5-point favorites in the latest Kansas vs. Fresno State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 50.5. The Jayhawks are -621 favorites (risk $621 to win $100), while the Bulldogs are +443 underdogs (risk $100 to win $443). Before making any Fresno State vs. Kansas picks, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Mike Tierney has to say. New users can also target the latest DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney had a tremendous 2024 college football season in which he finished 62-41 (plus $1,649 for $100 players). He is also 13-3 (+965) in his last 16 picks involving Fresno State. Anyone following could’ve seen huge returns. 

Now, Tierney has set his sights on Kansas vs. Fresno State and just locked in his picks and college football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Fresno State vs. Kansas:

Why Fresno State can cover

Being an underdog of a dozen-plus points isn’t an enviable position, but it’s a role that Fresno State is quite comfortable in. The Bulldogs are 9-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games as underdogs of 12-plus points, including covering in each of their last five in these situations. Additionally, unfamiliarity isn’t something that Kansas handles well as it went 0-3 ATS versus non-conference opponents last season.

Defense is where Fresno State’s strength lies as the team allowed just 4.7 yards per play in 2024, which was 11th-best in the country. It was particularly stout in defending the air as the team ranked in the top 12, nationally, in completion percentage allowed, interceptions per game and yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bulldogs could cause problems for a KU passing game which is the weak link of the Jayhawks. Kansas ranked outside the top 100 teams in FBS in completion percentage in 2024, but it also had the 21st-highest interception rate on offense. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Kansas can cover

Kansas is coming off a season in which it showed it can beat anyone, as the 2024 Jayhawks were the third team since 1980 to have three straight wins versus top-25 teams while being unranked. They also finished the year strongly, winning four of their last six, and covering in five of those six contests. In addition to having home-field advantage, Kansas should also have the coaching edge under sixth-year man, Lance Leipold. Meanwhile, Fresno has a new coach in Matt Entz, who is making his FBS debut as a head coach and spent just one year as an FBS assistant.

Quarterback Jalon Daniels may be the best player on the field, for either team, and is coming off a year in which he led the Big 12 with 14.4 yards per completion. He passed for 2,454 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2024 while rushing for another 439 yards and six touchdowns. His counterpart in E.J. Warner of Fresno State is the son of Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, but the younger Warner has 37 interceptions over the last three seasons, which is tied for the most in FBS. See which team to back at SportsLine, and new users can also check out the latest bet365 bonus code to get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet:

How to make Fresno State vs. Kansas picks

Tierney has analyzed Kansas vs. Fresno State from every angle and he’s leaning Over on the point total. He has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

So, who wins Fresno State vs. Kansas on Saturday, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Kansas vs. Fresno State spread to jump on, all from the expert who is 13-3 (+965) over his last 16 Fresno State predictions, and find out.