ACC expert picks 2025: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

The first season of a 17-team ACC produced multiple bids to the College Football Playoff in 2024 and an apparent return of Clemson as the team to beat in the conference. It sets the stage for an action-packed season in 2025, as Dabo Swinney’s program looks to entrench its position in the league and challenge themselves to be a national-title contender again.

Syracuse took down Miami on the final week of the regular season to propel Clemson into the ACC Championship Game, where a walk-off field goal vs. SMU handed the Tigers their eighth conference title since 2015. The runner-up Mustangs still made the College Football Playoff as an at-large team, solidifying one of the most impressive conference debuts we’ve seen in the modern era. After going 8-0 in ACC play, SMU has cemented itself as a top-tier program in the conference.

So Clemson enters the 2025 season as the favorite in the ACC, per FanDue, and the team to beat in the conference, but not without a couple dangerous contenders for their crown. 

Miami will have its shot once again, this time with Carson Beck as the high-profile transfer quarterback, and Louisville carries some weight in this discussion as they snapped Clemson’s 22-game home winning streak.

Or maybe it will be someone else stepping into the spotlight in the ACC. It could be a dark horse in the form of a Georgia Tech program on the rise or maybe a Super Bowl-winning coach in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Our experts have gathered together to make our predictions for how the 17-team league will stack up against each other in 2025, with bold predictions and analysis for some of the most overrated and underrated teams in the league.

Most overrated team

SMU: SMU won’t be catching any teams by surprise this season after it cruised through its first year in the ACC and made the College Football Playoff. The Mustangs return QB Kevin Jennings but lost A LOT from that 2024 playoff team especially on defense where SMU will have to rely on portal additions to replace significant departures on the defensive line and linebacker spots. The schedule figures to be more challenging in 2025, too, with road trips to Clemson and TCU plus challenging games against Miami, Louisville and Baylor. SMU should still be good but that preseason No. 16 ranking will prove challenging to live up to.  — John Talty (also Tom Fornelli, Richard Johnson)

Miami: This is not a response to my belief on where Miami sits in the ACC, as you’ll note in this very preview I am projecting the Hurricanes to finish as the runner-up in the league. But I do think the No. 10 ranking in the preseason AP Top 25 that Miami carries into the season is too high given some of the questions that need to be answered in the transition from 2024 to 2025. I believe the team will, for the third year in a row, have one of the best offensive lines in the country and boasts enough defensive disruptors to be dangerous in every game. But until we see not just Carson Beck but a reloaded set of pass catchers making plays against quality competition I think this is a team that rates closer to No. 20 than No. 10. — Chip Patterson

Duke: This is a borderline call-out, but I have enough hesitation to label the Blue Devils as overrated. Remember, Duke gave up an incredible amount of explosive plays as a result of its aggressive defense, which resulted in a lot of sacks (43) but also some high-scoring losses last season. The Blue Devils may have also upgraded at quarterback with Tulane transfer Darian Mensah, but I received mixed reviews in the industry about him when he entered the transfer portal. It’s difficult for me to believe the Blue Devils will replicate the nine-win season from a year ago. — Brandon Marcello

North Carolina: What are the realistic expectations for the Tar Heels this season? After failing to impress in talent acquisition this offseason, first-year coach Bill Belichick will have an incredibly soft schedule to thank for getting to bowl eligibility this fall. That said, the start of the campaign may not look pretty in Chapel Hill. There’s a chance the Tar Heels lose their first three games against Power 4 competition — TCU, at UCF, Clemson — before figuring it out the rest of the way. — Brad Crawford (also Shehan Jeyarajah)

Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is a popular ACC dark-horse candidate since it doesn’t play SMU, Miami, Louisville or Florida State and gets Clemson at home. But outside of Gardner-Webb and Temple, there aren’t any layups on the schedule. The Yellow Jackets are replacing both offensive tackles and a significant chunk of their defensive front and are destined to end up in some close games against the endless parade of mid-tier ACC foes on their schedule. They should be good but more like 8-4 as opposed to 10-2 or better. — David Cobb

Syracuse: The schedule is brutal for Syracuse this season. The Orange open with Tennessee, travel to Clemson, SMU, Miami and Notre Dame and also host a quartet of ACC teams (Georgia Tech, Duke, Pittsburgh and North Carolina) that could easily finish in the top half of the league. I’m just not sure where the wins are going to come from consistently this year for a program that returns just seven starters from a 10-win team. — Chris Hummer

Most underrated team

Duke: Here’s a little context for you that could come as a surprise. Over the last three seasons, Duke has gone 14-10 in ACC play. Georgia Tech is also 14-10, Pitt is 10-14, and North Carolina, which had a top-three NFL Draft pick at QB for part of that span, is only 13-11. Yet, Duke never gets the same benefit of the doubt from college football fans or media. This team has won at least eight games in three straight seasons, will once again have a strong defense, and upgraded at QB. It’s not crazy to think this could be the third-best team in the ACC this year. — Fornelli (also Crawford)

Virginia Tech: Brent Pry made some staff changes after the Hokies went 0-5 in one-score games. Among them was bringing in Philip Montgomery as the new offensive coordinator, and so this is a bet that his pairing with Kyron Drones yields fruitful results for both the quarterback and the coaching staff. Pry says this year’s roster is the closest to his vision of the Virginia Tech program since he arrived, so fans are expecting results that are closer to the Hokies standard. — Patterson

Louisville: Jeff Brohm just wins, no doubt about it. His Cardinals last year lost to teams who made the CFP and an inexplicable loss on a field goal to Stanford. His offenses churn out consistent passing production and they’ll continue to do so with USC transfer Miller Moss. With Isaac Brown, Chris Bell and Caullin Lacey at the skill positions, there’s no reason to believe this offense will take a step back. There are questions about pass rush, but I’ll take Louisville to be in the thick of the ACC race come November. — Johnson (also Marcello, Cobb)

Georgia Tech: There have been bouts of inconsistency from Georgia Tech the last two years. But we’ve seen the Yellow Jackets play with the best teams in the country when things are going right. With Haynes King back under center and important pieces back on both sides of the ball, this is a team positioned to make a run in the ACC, especially if Clemson or Miami stumble. Georgia Tech draws Clemson at home and doesn’t play another ranked team in conference play. This is a season when a jump from seven to nine or 10 wins feels very realistic in Atlanta. — Hummer

Syracuse: The schedule is brutal and the Orange lost last year’s leading passer (Kyle McCord), runner (LeQuint Allen) and two top receivers (Jackson Meeks, Trebor Pena). And yet, I’m still a believer in Fran Brown’s program and think ranking Syracuse in the bottom four of the ACC is too low. Syracuse picked up two viable QB options out of the transfer portal (Notre Dame’s Steve Angeli, LSU’s Rickie Collins) which should help prevent the offense from a complete freefall without McCord. This team won’t match last year’s surprising 10-3 record, but the potential to win six or more and make a bowl is still there. — Talty (also Cobb)

Bold predictions

• Tom Fornelli: Clemson and Miami will give the ACC two playoff teams for the second consecutive year, but they’ll be the only two ACC teams to win more than eight games during the regular season.
• Chip Patterson: Bill Belichick wins ACC Coach of the Year. North Carolina does not have the roster to win eight or nine games against an average power conference schedule, at least in terms of a power rating. However, a favorable schedule has setup the Tar Heels to reach those win totals in Year 1 with Belichick at the helm. Even though Mack Brown hit or eclipsed the eight-win mark three times in the previous five seasons, doing it with a significant roster rebuild of more than 70 new players will be viewed as a coaching success.
• Brandon Marcello: Clemson finishes atop the conference standings, but loses to Miami in the ACC Championship Game. Mario Cristobal quiets the naysayers and wins the title with the conference’s most talented roster, improving a dreadful secondary last season with the addition of defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman and a revamped scheme. 
• John Talty: For all the weird offseason storylines, North Carolina will be…perfectly normal. In Year 1 of the Bill Belichick era, the Tar Heels won’t be a title contender, but they won’t be a disaster, either. With a very manageable schedule, UNC feels like at least an eight-win team and I still think Belichick can steal at least one game by outfoxing his opponent. The season opener against TCU should be a sneaky good game. 
• Richard Johnson: The ACC gets three teams in the CFP. Welcome to the dance … Louisville. The only teams Lousville lost to last season were CFP teams and an inexplicable loss to Stanford on a field goal. Bringing in Miller Moss and raising the floor on an already potent offense helps this team get to their ceiling. The Cardinals will have to navigate a trap game against James Madison, but can win all their other non-Clemson/Miami regular-season games. If they do, and keep Ls to the top two teams in the league, they could sneak in the playoff if the Dukes run the table in the Sun Belt and make the CFP.
• Shehan Jeyarajah: Clemson is back. After losing a nail-biter to LSU in the opener, the Tigers will turn back the clock and romp undefeated through the rest of the schedule and ultimately reach at least the semis of the College Football Playoff. If that’s not bold enough for you, Duke will beat Illinois in a nonconference clash and reach 9-1, only to lose on the road against Chapel Bill and fumble away a shot to play for an ACC title. 
• David Cobb: There will be at least five changes in the ACC during college football’s 2025 coaching carousel, and at least one of them won’t be a traditional firing. As the Big Ten and SEC try and show their superiority in a new era, expect those leagues to go hard after top coaching talent from the ACC.  
• Brad Crawford: Miami cracks the playoff bracket for the first time in program history thanks to winning 11 games despite a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game and a September split in games against Notre Dame and Florida. The Hurricanes should run the table the rest of the way with a roster that’s considerably more talented than others they’ll see in conference action. There’s a chance Bill Belichick loses his first three games this fall against Power 4 competition — TCU, UCF and Clemson.
• Chris Hummer: Party like it’s 2016 again because Clemson will run the table and finish 12-0 in the regular season. That’s how strongly I feel about the Tigers. They have most depth, the best quarterback and the top defensive line in the ACC. Clemson is very much back as a national-title threat. 

ACC predicted order of finish

ACC champion

Clemson (+120): Dabo gets the last laugh as his 2025 roster is the perfect hybrid showcasing his steadfastness to program-building while also showing his ability to adapt. Transfer portal additions on defense, in particular, could play a role in providing depth for a program that has been building toward a year like this on the high school recruiting trail. The transfer portal era has brought a lot of plug-and-play talent into the world of title contenders, but Clemson has remained committed to developing the players in the locker room. Now, just like in the late 2010s, we see a couple of splashy Clemson classes maturing and forming the nucleus of an elite college football team. Also, Swinney has seen a spark from making some tough staff decisions before and could be set for the same bringing in Tom Allen as the team’s new defensive coordinator. If the man who Dabo called “a bowling ball of butcher knives” can get Clemson’s defense to perform to its talent level the Tigers will have one of the best units in the nation. — Patterson (also Fornelli, Talty, Johnson, Jeyarajah, Cobb, Crawford, Hummer)

Miami (+400): Question Mario Cristobal as much as you want as a game-day coach, but the coach knows how to build a roster. I believe he hit the mark once again with a transfer class led by Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and the hiring of Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. Hetherman must build a defense that was notably weak in the secondary last season, and I have full faith that a change in players and a shift in scheme will lead to improvement. The offensive line has been described to me in preseason camp as “elite,” which only bolsters my faith. Miami doesn’t leave the state of Florida until November, allowing for the Canes to hit their stride at home. I’ve got Miami finishing second to Clemson in the conference standings, but beating the Tigers in the ACC Championship to win the title. — Marcello