Fourteen of the 16 spots in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are taken.
Austin Dillon’s surprise win at Richmond made him the 14th winner of the 2025 season. The victory came a year after Dillon won at Richmond when he crashed Joey Logano on the last lap in an attempt to get a playoff berth. Though Dillon officially kept the win, NASCAR revoked his playoff privileges from the victory and Dillon failed to qualify for the postseason.
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This year, he’s in. Dillon became the third driver to get a victory in 2025 despite currently sitting outside the top 20 in the points standings. Josh Berry (22nd) won the third race of the season at Las Vegas. And Shane van Gisbergen (24th) has dominated road courses thanks to his excellence in Australian Supercars. But he doesn’t have any top-10 finishes on oval tracks.
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With Dillon winning his way into the playoffs, there are just two playoff spots up for grabs on Saturday night at Daytona (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC). If a winless driver becomes the 15th winner of the season, just one driver will make it into the playoffs via his position in the points standings.
And you don’t have to go back very far to find the last time a driver snuck his way into the playoffs at Daytona. A year ago, Harrison Burton got the lone victory of his Cup Series career to get into the playoffs. Burton led only the final lap as the seven-caution race featured two massive crashes.
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Can a similar surprise happen in 2025? Here’s a look at how the playoff race looks ahead of the final race of the Cup Series regular season. All odds are from BetMGM.
Already in the playoffs
Larson and Hamlin are the co-favorites for the Cup Series title at +400 while Bell is at +450.
Van Gisbergen is currently third with 22 playoff points but is 80-1 to win the title thanks to his inability to get a top-10 outside of a road course. Elliott’s early end to his Richmond race means that William Byron will win the regular-season title and start the playoffs with the most playoff points.
The Team Penske trio of Blaney, Logano and Cindric are the three favorites to win Saturday night’s race thanks to their prowess at drafting tracks. Blaney and Logano are 10-1 to win while Cindric is 12-1.
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Would love a repeat winner
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Tyler Reddick (714 points)
Both Reddick and Bowman would love a Team Penske driver — or any driver with a win, for that matter — to get to victory lane if neither of them are going to make it. Bowman is 60 points ahead of Chris Buescher in the points standings; Buescher cannot catch him without getting a win to automatically qualify himself for the playoffs.
If there is a new winner, Reddick has a 29-point advantage over Bowman for what would be the final playoff spot. But we’ve seen points deficits like that get erased at tracks like Daytona and Talladega before. All it takes is an early crash.
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Needs to win to get in
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Chris Buescher (20-1 to win Daytona)
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John Hunter Nemechek (60-1)
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (20-1)
Keselowski and Busch are considered the favorites among the winless drivers to get a win and make the postseason. It’s been a rough year for both former Cup Series champions. Busch is 16th in the points standings and has just two top-five finishes. Keselowski has shown speed recently, but he’s 19th with four top-five finishes.
Keselowski could be staring at all three of his Roush Fenway Keselowski cars missing the playoffs if neither he, Buescher or Ryan Preece win on Saturday. Buescher and Preece are currently 11th and 13th in the standings, respectively. In most years, that’s enough to get you into the postseason. Not this year with three winners outside the top 20 in the standings.
Both Stenhouse and McDowell are former Daytona 500 champions and could be in position for a victory late in the race. Ty Dillon is 15 places behind 17th-place Ty Gibbs in the standings but has shorter odds to get a victory.
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