Texas A&M made noise in the first year of the Mike Elko era but faded down the stretch with a rough November, crushing its College Football Playoff hopes. Is Year 2 when the Aggies finally get over the hump and deliver on high expectations, or will they again fall shy of the SEC’s top tier? GigEm247’s Carter Karels joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to preview expectations for the Aggies this fall.
What are the stakes for Texas A&M in 2025?
Texas A&M’s eight wins last year were its most since 2021, but it felt as though the Aggies left something on the table. They were in control of their own SEC and CFP destinies until deep into the year, when they closed the campaign with three losses in their final four regular-season games and bowl matchup. Getting over the hump and reaching conference title contention is the goal, but how reasonable is it?
“Going into Year 2, the thought is you stabilized the program, you brought some normalcy, but can you take that next step?” Karels said. “Can you be beyond an 8-5 kind of team? That’s been the ceiling for them over the last few years. It hasn’t been better than that. So can they get better than that? I think that’s kind of the question.”
The answer largely hinges on quarterback Marcel Reed, who flashed dynamic playmaking ability on the ground but has room to grow as a passer. Now that he is the unquestioned starter, perhaps he will round into a more complete player. The defense needs to hold up its end of the bargain, too. It did Reed no favors last year when it allowed 44 points to South Carolina, 43 to Auburn and 35 to USC in late-season losses.
Breakout player everybody needs to know
The Aggies lost a bevy of talent on their defensive line, and the pass rush might suffer as a result. Now is the time for Cashius Howell to step up. The former No. 8 edge rusher transfer was a rotation player in his first season in the SEC and posted four sacks. Double that number in Year 2, and the defensive front may not miss a beat. Howell also needs to improve in run defense, though, and his 8.5 tackles for loss last year were a bit deceptive.
“He is somebody that if you watched him last year, you might have been saying, ‘Shoot, this guy might be better than Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton,'” said Karels. “He’s more productive. He’s making more plays. The flip side is he gets a lot of penalties. You can run right at him. You can run a lot of yards running at him. But if he cleans up the penalties and one more year of experience — he came from Bowling Green the previous year — this is a guy that could be a high draft pick when it’s all said and done. He could be a guy that has 10 sacks next year.”
The defense’s floor rises if Howell reaches his ceiling. He does not have to be as elite as his predecessors, Shemar Stweart and Nic Scourton, for the defense to be good, but it would obviously not hurt if he turned into a first-round prospect in his own right.
Win total outlook
FanDuel Sportsbook set the Texas A&M win total at 7.5 with significant juice on the over. Eight wins is the betting market’s expectation and would match last year’s output if it comes to fruition. That falls short of expectations in College Station, though. With this program’s hefty resources and the arrival of a highly regarded coach in Elko, playoff contention is the bar by which the Aggies will be measured. And eight wins is almost certainly not good enough.
“The thought of success still has to be nine wins just because it’s something this team rarely ever does,” said Karels. “They were 8-5 or worse almost every year over the last 20-25 years, almost 30 years. So you have to be realistic at some point. Yeah, they’ve brought in some really good recruiting classes. But at a certain point, you can’t just see 5-7, 7-6, 8-5 and say, ‘This team could win 10 or 11 games.’ They’ve gotta start with nine games first before they can get to that next level. In the SEC, you win nine or 10 games, that’s enough to get you into the playoff.”
A trip to Notre Dame in the second leg of a home-and-home adds massive difficulty to the nonconference slate. Closing the year with Texas in a Lone Star Showdown rematch is a tall order, too. The season might be made or broken with the two games against Florida and LSU — two squads in Texas A&M’s tier that hope to take steps forward of their own.
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