We’re just one week away from Week 0 and the start of college football season, so it’s time squeeze in conference championship game predictions across the Power Four and Group of Six ranks before the 2025 campaign kickoff.
For the first time, College Football Playoff seeding this fall will be entirely up to the selection committee with four automatic bids going to champions of the ACC, Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 along with the Group of Six’s highest-ranked team.
First-round byes are back for the top four seeds, but those no longer have to hold the conference champion distinction. That emphasizes the importance of scheduling and quality wins, and makes the margin for error extremely small for those battling for a lone G6 spot.
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Five conference title games will be played a neutral sites in December and the four others are hosted by the regular-season champs of the CUSA, American, Sun Belt and Mountain West.
All conference champion odds are courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook.
Conference USA Championship (Dec. 5, campus site)
Projected matchup: Liberty vs. Louisiana Tech
Winner: Liberty (+120)
Ethan Vasko was Coastal Carolina’s starting quarterback last season, but is now in charge of the Flames’ attack following Kaidon Salter’s transfer to Colorado. Like Salter, Vasko is mobile and Jamey Chadwell’s offense will not have to make wholesale changes schematically to accommodate his skill set. Despite losing a couple play-making wideouts to the NFL Draft and its starting running back to Oregon State, Louisiana Tech is hopeful new portal pieces offensively result in a turnaround this season. Western Kentucky is the betting favorite behind Liberty to take CUSA, but we’re going on a limb here and projecting Sonny Cumbie to remove himself from the hot seat with a surprising trip to the conference title game.
Sun Belt Championship (Dec. 5, campus site)
Projected matchup: James Madison vs. Texas State
Winner: JMU (+270)
One of the more trendy picks to reach the playoff from the Group of Six ranks, it may take a perfect record for JMU to get there. The Dukes travel to Louisville in Week 2, but that’s the only game where they’re going to be overmatched athletically. If Bob Chesney’s team can upset the Cardinals, there’s a chance this squad could run the table in the Sun Belt. Texas State has registered consecutive eight-win seasons with bowl victories and feels due for a breakout under coach G.J. Kinne.
American Championship (Dec. 5, campus site)
Projected matchup: Navy vs. Tulane
Winner: Navy (+500)
Tulane, Memphis, Navy, Army, UTSA or South Florida. Take your pick in the most wide open Group of Six race nationally this season. There’s legitimately a handful of teams that could host the conference championship with much of it revolving around which squads can stay healthy enough to endure the 14-week grind. Second-year Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has almost a completely new roster after seeing his starting quarterback and running back — among others — sign with Power Four programs. With just five returning starters, it’s hard to slot the Green Wave as the pick here. Meanwhile, Navy is veteran-led and directed by quarterback Blake Horvath, who eclipsed 1,200 yards on the ground last fall, and an upperclassmen-rich offensive front. And the Midshipmen will not have to face Tulane or UTSA during the regular season.
Mountain West Championship (Dec. 5, campus site)
Projected matchup: UNLV vs. Boise State
Winner: Boise State (-150)
Our preseason selection to be the Group of Six’s representative in the playoff, the Broncos will have to get there with new centerpieces offensively as quarterback Maddux Madsen is one of the lone notable playmakers back alongside slot wideout Latrell Caples and tight end Matt Lauter from a 12-win team. This team’s strength will be the offensive line with four returning starters. At UNLV, former Florida coach Dan Mullen takes over with a bevy of transfers within the two-deep. And he’s still waiting to name a starting quarterback between former Michigan signal caller Alex Orji and Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea.
Big 12 Championship (Dec. 6, Arlington, Texas)
Projected matchup: Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
Winner: Texas Tech (+550)
These two are ranked inside the preseason AP Top 25, but will not square off during the regular season. However, both the Cyclones and Red Raiders have similar paths to the Big 12 title game and will have to get through fellow ranked opponents Kansas State, BYU and Arizona State. Texas Tech signed the most-talented transfer class in program history this offseason, plugging various personnel holes with elite talent. Iowa State replaces a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, but feels good about its situation at quarterback with multi-year starter Rocco Becht returning. Neither of these teams has ever appeared in the playoff, but that changes if this is the matchup we get at AT&T Stadium in December. The Cyclones were on the cusp of reaching the expanded bracket last fall, but fell to Arizona State in the conference championship.
MAC Championship (Dec. 6, Detroit)
Projected matchup: Toledo vs. Ohio
Winner: Toledo (+220)
Toledo is another playoff hopeful from the Group of Six ranks if all goes according to plan for longtime coach Jason Candle. The two-time MAC champion has 13 starters back, including seven players overall in the trenches. Ohio’s coming off the best three-season stretch in program history and first-year coach Brian Smith faces tremendous pressure to keep the train chugging along for the Bobcats. Ohio finished inside the top 10 nationally last fall in total defense, but most of those impact guys are gone. Quarterback Parker Navarro is hoping to take the next step in his development if he can cut down on turnovers in 2025.
SEC Championship (Dec. 6, Atlanta)
Projected matchup: Texas vs. Alabama
Winner: Texas (+280)
Just getting to the SEC Championship Game will be a tremendous feat for both in 2025. The schedules include a number of matchups with elite opponents and the final couple weeks of November will ultimately determine who reaches Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Whichever team finishes third in the standings should get a welcomed open date before the start of the playoff. Being the preseason No. 1 has been a bad omen for most the past two decades in terms of winning the national championship, but we’re talking conference title here. Steve Sarkisian will get his revenge on Kalen DeBoer for the 2023 playoff semifinal loss to Washington.
ACC Championship (Dec. 6, Charlotte, N.C.)
Projected matchup: Miami vs. Clemson
Winner: Clemson (+105)
The Hurricanes’ two toughest games this season come out of conference against Notre Dame and Florida, which means Miami should be destined for its first playoff berth if it can split those before getting to the ACC title game without another blemish. On the Clemson side, it’s hard to envision the Tigers losing a game to a league opponent this fall. Dabo Swinney’s roster is immensely talented and there’s a chance Clemson will be a double-digit favorite in every contest against ACC competition.
Big Ten Championship (Dec. 6, Indianapolis)
Projected matchup: Ohio State vs. Penn State
Winner: Penn State (+210)
Finally, James Franklin will end a nine-game losing skid to Ohio State, and it will come in Indy. The streak’s at eight entering the campaign and will expand after Penn State drops its only game of the year on the road against the Buckeyes on Nov. 1. The rematch will be much sweeter for the Nittany Lions, however. As a 11-2 finisher, we’re projecting Ohio State to be the playoff’s No. 4 seed behind top-seeded Texas, No. 2 Penn State and third-seeded Clemson. The reigning national champions largely have a new team outside of All-American candidates Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs, but heightened expectations will not change for Ryan Day.
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