College football rankings: Why balanced preseason AP Top 25 poll foreshadows chaos ahead in 2025 season

It’s pretty rare that there’s ever a serious race for No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll. Even if there’s a debate, it’s typically settled long before ballots are cast. Over the last 20 seasons, the difference in first-place votes between No. 1 and 2 has been within 10 ballots only twice. 

But in a sign of the changing times, that changed dramatically in 2025. Texas captured the No. 1 ranking in the preseason AP Top 25 on Monday, amazingly earning the honor for the first time in program history. However, UT only edged out Penn State by two first-place votes (25 vs. 23). The margin ranks as the closest since 2008, when Georgia beat out Ohio State by a single first-place ballot. 

In fact, the totals were even closer as the Longhorns and Nittany Lions were separated by only five ballot points. That makes it the tightest race for preseason No. 1 since 1998, when Ohio State beat out Florida State. Adding another dimension, six teams received a first-place vote in the preseason poll. That’s the most since the 2016 season. Keep in mind, these are two programs that didn’t even reach the national title game last year. 

The message is clear: The consolidation era is on hiatus. Heading into 2025, college football is preparing for its most wide open national championship race in years. 

Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Penn State all boast between 6-to-1 and 7-to-1 odds to win the national championship, a ridiculously close race. Extend the odds to 15-to-1 and the field grows to nine teams. Recent national champions like Ohio State and Georgia remain at the top despite major losses, but a plethora of new interlopers are getting into the mix. 

Oregon sits at 12-to-1 odds despite flipping several of their top contributors and losing quarterback Dillon Gabriel to the NFL. In the 21st Century, they are perhaps the most successful program without a national championship to their name. Notre Dame finally won its first major bowl games in more than 30 years under coach Marcus Freeman and hope star running back Jeremiyah Love can get them over the edge. LSU revamped its secondary and receiver room in the transfer portal as Brian Kelly hopes to finally win his first national championship. 

Among the top group of nine, six replace their starting quarterback. Only two of the last nine national championships were won by quarterbacks without significant starting experience. It creates an opening for the rest. 

Perhaps the greatest indication of this specific moment, however, is the two teams fighting at the top. Texas has not won a national championship since 2005. Penn State hasn’t captured the crown since 1986. The Longhorns have yet to win the SEC and are replacing their quarterback, top receivers and both NFL offensive tackles. The Nittany Lions last won their conference in 2016 and have been ridiculed thanks to James Franklin’s 1-18 career record against AP top five opponents. 

At the same time, the two programs with championship droughts are defined by what they bring back, too. Texas is the only program in the country to retain its head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator for five straight seasons. Penn State lured back running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, quarterback Drew Allar and defensive lineman Dani Dennis-Sutton despite overtures from the NFL. 

Will that be enough to get either of those teams over the top? It was for Ohio State and Michigan, which similarly retained NFL-caliber talent to break through. In fact, the trend of maximizing timelines has been one employed steadily in recent college football memory. 

Six different programs have won the last seven national championships since the transfer portal was instituted. Outside of a two-year run by Georgia, the days of Saban’s Alabama monopolizing the championship race appear to be a thing of the past. 

Last season, Georgia captured 46 of the 62 first-place votes as the ballots were split among only three teams. Second-place Ohio State (with 15 first-place votes) went on to win the national championship. Both teams had multiple regular season losses before entering the College Football Playoff. 

Being ranked preseason No. 1 has often been a kiss of death; only two preseason No. 1s in the 21st century have gone on to win the national title: 2004 USC and 2017 Alabama. Texas also has the worst title odds of any preseason No. 1 since Alabama in 2016; the Tide lost to Clemson in a championship rematch. 

If the 2025 preseason AP Top 25 is any indication, there could be historic levels of chaos on the horizon.