The college football season is right around the corner, and that means it’s time to finalize our power rankings ahead of opening kickoff. Each week during the year I’ll be releasing my Top 20 power rankings for betting purposes. The Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions sit atop my rankings heading into the 2025 regular season.
I’ll break down the rankings by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. During the year we’ll move teams based on results and discuss changes in the betting market. I will also set the point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers.
College football preseason power rankings
Tier 1
1. Texas Longhorns
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
Texas and Penn State are my top two teams entering the season. I make the Longhorns a 2-point favorite on a neutral field. If I had to pick the game right now, I would lean Texas, assuming Arch Manning lives up to the hype.
The Longhorns lose 14 players but again have one of the most talented two-deep rosters in the country. The Arch Manning era begins at Ohio State on Aug. 30, and according to my power rankings, there is value on Texas as an underdog in that matchup. I bet the Longhorns last month at +3.
Penn State has an experienced roster, a veteran quarterback and one of the best schedules of any title contender. The Nittany Lions will be huge favorites in their first three games before Oregon comes calling on Sept. 27 in Happy Valley. I would grab Penn State +750 to win it all now. Those odds will likely be long gone by October. I also disagree with the market and make Penn State the favorite to win the Big Ten over Ohio State.
Tier 2 (+3 from Tier 1)
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Clemson Tigers
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
6. LSU Tigers
I think the Tier 2 teams are really close, and there isn’t much separating No. 3 Georgia and No. 6 LSU. I have the Bulldogs at No. 3 because I make UGA a slight favorite over the other teams on a neutral field. I would also make Texas or Penn State a 3-4 point favorite over all of these teams.
These teams being rated so close is why I bet LSU +4 at Clemson in Week 1. At first, I planned to lay off that game, but the line moved so much it presented value with LSU. I make Clemson -3 in that matchup, so anything +4 or better is a play on LSU with my numbers.
I also bet LSU +112 to make the CFP, and I think the Tigers are worth a look to win the National Championship at +1400.
Georgia is breaking in a new quarterback in Gunner Stockton, but the overall roster is still loaded. The Bulldogs need to get back to playing championship defense after slipping on that side of the ball the last two years. Early tests against Tennessee and Alabama could propel or sink UGA. The Bulldogs’ win total is sitting at 9.5. I would be surprised if Georgia didn’t hit that over.
I bet Clemson +1600 to win the title back in June because I thought there was some value. At this rate though, the Tigers might be title favorites by Labor Day. Clemson is a sexy pick this season with bettors. It makes sense. This is Dabo Swinney’s most talented team in years, and if the Tigers beat LSU in the opener, they could run the table in the regular season. I lean over Clemson over 10.5 wins with their favorable schedule.
Ohio State lost a ton of leadership and experience from last year’s title team. The talent is still there; it’s just younger. That includes the quarterback position, where projected starter Julian Sayin is untested. Then again, with all-world receiver Jeremiah Smith still in Columbus, it may not matter. I do believe Ohio State is a little overvalued early in the season. I’m not interested in the Buckeyes at +650 to win the National Championship and +195 to win the Big Ten. I believe we’ll get better odds during the season.
Tier 3 (+5 from Tier 1)
7. Oregon Ducks
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10. Texas A&M Aggies
11. Miami Hurricanes
12. Ole Miss Rebels
Tier 3 is my “hold” group. I’m not running to bet futures with most of these teams, although all five are good enough to compete for a National Championship if a few things break their way. I should also point out that there is a pretty sizable drop from Tier 3 to Tier 4. I believe one of these top 12 teams will win the Natty. The teams listed after Tier 3 are a notch below title contenders entering the season.
I also believe there will be better opportunities to bet on most of these teams throughout the season in the futures market. Four of these teams—Oregon, Alabama, Notre Dame and Ole Miss—are starting untested quarterbacks, so there is a higher degree of variance based on how they perform. That’s why I make Texas or Penn State at least a 5-point favorite over every team in this tier.
Notre Dame is favored over Miami on Aug. 31, but I make that game closer to pick. The Irish will have one of the most inexperienced quarterback rooms in the country entering the season after veteran Riley Leonard departed. Talented freshman CJ Carr is expected to be under center versus Miami. If the Canes win that game, I might be more interested in the Irish at a better number because I believe Notre Dame will get better throughout the season.
The same goes for Oregon. The Ducks should win their first four games easily, although they will be such big favorites I don’t see their odds moving much. Then I like Penn State to beat Oregon at home on Sept. 27, which could create value on the Ducks in the future market. I make the Nittany Lions an early touchdown favorite at home in that matchup.
Kalen DeBoer is in a much better spot entering his second season at Alabama. Not only was DeBoer replacing an iconic coach in Nick Saban, but he also lost 30 players from the 2023 team. Alabama will have one of the SEC’s top defenses, but like many other title contenders, the Tide enter the season with an inexperienced quarterback. Ty Simpson is expected to take over for the departed Jalen Milroe, although five-star recruit Keelon Russell is waiting in the wings. The betting market is just too high on Alabama right now for me to bite.
Texas A&M returns 15 starters, including sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed. The Aggies led the SEC in scoring last season and could be even better in 2025 if Reed develops as a passer. Not many people are talking about Texas A&M in the SEC, but I see value on the Aggies at +1600 to win the conference. My guess is that number only gets shorter.
Ole Miss missed an opportunity to make the playoff last season with Jaxson Dart and a talented defense, but Lane Kiffin found a way to lose at home to Kentucky. This year’s version enters with a few more question marks. Kiffin knows how to develop quarterbacks, though, and Austin Simmons has the potential to be special. For betting purposes though, Ole Miss is a stay away for me right now. I think they could take a minor step back this season.
Tier 4 (+8 from Tier 1)
13. Michigan Wolverines
14. Florida Gators
15. SMU Mustangs
16. Auburn Tigers
Tier 4 are the teams I believe have the talent to make a College Football Playoff run, although some things have to fall into place for them to be serious title contenders. I would say these four teams are the most likely to take a big leap up or fall completely out of the rankings based on a number of factors like quarterback play, schedule strength, and coaching. The teams in Tier 1 would be over a touchdown favorite on a neutral field over any of these four.
Some people love Michigan this season. I think the Wolverines might still be a year away from competing for a National Championship with quarterback Bryce Underwood. The team is deeper and more talented in Sherrone Moore’s second season. The schedule is manageable, with a Week 2 matchup at Oklahoma being the pivotal game. I would make Michigan a slight favorite over the other three teams in Tier 4 on a neutral field.
Florida is a sexy sleeper pick to win the Natty this season. I like the Gators’ talent, but they face one of the nation’s toughest schedules for the second straight year. I’m also not sold that Billy Napier is the right guy at head coach. Then again, coaches get a lot smarter when they have a quarterback like DJ Lagway. I’m not interested in Florida at +4000 to win it all. I don’t believe they are serious title contenders yet.
No team benefits more from NIL than SMU. The school has a ton of money to spend from rich boosters. Granted, they tried to use this system 40 years too early and lost the football program, but now it’s okay to pay players. The Mustangs aren’t a one-year wonder. Kevin Jennings returns at quarterback to lead one of the ACC’s best offenses. The Mustangs at +700 to win the conference is worth a look.
Auburn really comes down to Jackson Arnold at quarterback. The Tigers struggled to throw a forward pass in some games last year, although the defense was strong, ranking 28th in the country. The talent is there for Auburn to make a big jump if Hugh Freeze finally has the right guy under center. My advice with Auburn is to skip the futures market and bet on them for a game-to-game basis instead.
Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)
17. Utah Utes
18. South Carolina Gamecocks
19. Illinois Fighting Illini
20. Oklahoma Sooners
Tier 5 is a group of teams I think are good enough to reach the College Football Playoff, but that is probably their ceiling. I don’t see any of these teams winning their conference or making a serious National Championship run.
There is some value betting on these teams to reach the playoff. I bet Illinois at +590 to make the CFP and think they are still worth a shot at +570. Bret Bielema has an experienced squad and a schedule that avoids Penn State, Oregon and Michigan.
The team I have rated highest in the Big 12 heading into the season is Utah. The Utes have a veteran offensive line and strong defense. New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier should help solidify a quarterback position that struggled with injuries last season. The Utes do have a tricky opener at UCLA. I like the undervalued Bruins plus the points in that game. I’m just waiting to see if we can get a +7 with UCLA.
South Carolina is a bit overvalued heading into the season. Shane Beamer has a talented roster but loses three starters off one of college football’s nastiest defensive lines. I also don’t love LaNorris Sellers’ decision to trash the Rec Specs. I’m pretty sure it’s a scientific fact that a player performs better while wearing Rec Specs. There will be some spots to fade the Gamecocks as favorites this season. I am more interested in betting South Carolina as an underdog, although we won’t get many opportunities until later in the season.
My concern with Oklahoma is Brent Venables is a better recruiter and coordinator than he is a head coach, similar to Napier at Florida. The Sooners get Michigan at home on Sept. 6 in one of the bigger early-season matchups. Oklahoma is the one team in Tier 5 I can see making a big move up the rankings, although the schedule is a monster.
Next three
USC Trojans, TCU Horned Frogs, Tennessee Volunteers
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