Oregon made quite the statement heading into college football’s midseason junction, holding off previously-unbeaten Ohio State to move up in this week’s national rankings. The victory validates the Ducks as one of the College Football Playoff national championship frontrunners and puts the Buckeyes in the unfamiliar position of needing to play flawlessly over their final six games in hopes of a rematch.
Will the SEC’s top challenger behind Texas please stand up? Coming off stunning upset losses on the road, Alabama and Tennessee failed to impress at home, needing late-game stops to avoid upsets against South Carolina and Florida. The Crimson Tide and Vols are on the outside looking in for our updated midseason projection given lackluster recent play and challenging schedules the rest of the way.
It’s hard to imagine a three-loss SEC team making the field this season given the strength within other conferences along with Notre Dame’s opportunities ahead. The margin for error is almost zero over the next six weeks and change for Kalen DeBoer and Josh Heupel’s teams.
The Big 12 continues to be college football’s most unpredictable league given the sample size. BYU, Iowa State and Texas Tech are the lone unbeatens in conference play, but the Cougars have the most favorable slate remaining and do not face a nationally-ranked team through the end of the regular season. The Red Raiders and Cyclones meet on Nov. 2.
Projected CFP Rankings
1. Texas
SEC champion
The Longhorns’ unbeaten mark will be tested Saturday night against Georgia. This feels like the SEC’s biggest game of the year, but given how much parity we’ve seen across the league through seven weeks, we’re approaching that connotation with caution. Texas is playing lights out defensively, yet hasn’t faced a quarterback of Carson Beck’s caliber this fall.
2. Oregon
Big Ten champion
Oregon pushed ahead in the league title picture with the program’s landmark victory over Ohio State. It’s a matchup we’d love to see for a second time in Indianapolis between two of the nation’s heavyweights given the 12-round fight witnessed in Eugene. The Ducks replace the Buckeyes as the projected Big Ten champion this week.
3. Clemson
ACC champion
No team in college football is hotter than the Tigers. Dabo Swinney said after the season-opening loss to Georgia that his team’s goals remained out front if they could flush the setback and get back to business. They’ve managed to do by shredding every ACC opponent they’ve met thus far. Over his last five starts, quarterback Cade Klubnik has 21 total touchdowns and one turnover.
4. BYU
Big 12 champion
Until BYU falls, the Cougars are staying put at No. 4 in these projected playoff rankings as the league champion. This has been a special season for Kalani Sitake, whose teams has beaten SMU and Kansas State — opponents who have combined for 10 wins.
5. Ohio State
Oregon won the first fight, but will the Ducks win the war? That’s a question we’re asking after the Buckeyes simply ran out of time on the road at Autzen Stadium. Ohio State clearly showed it belonged in the conversation amongst the nation’s elites, but losing left tackle Josh Simmons is a significant blow. In this scenario, as the projected five-seed and Big Ten runner-up, the Buckeyes would finish 11-2 overall.
6. Miami
The Hurricanes are the ACC’s lone remaining unbeaten, but have managed to escape multiple hiccups in recent weeks after fourth-quarter comebacks against Virginia Tech and Cal. Can Miami keep surviving late-game situations like this?
7. Georgia
Kirby Smart will do everything he can to give unbeaten Texas its “welcome to the SEC” moment on Saturday night. After seeing his regular-season winning snapped a few weeks ago at Alabama, the Bulldogs coach can’t afford another setback before November if he intends on getting back to the league title game in Atlanta.
8. Penn State
The Nittany Lions needed a spotlight moment and took full advantage over the weekend at USC. Drew Allar was terrific in the second half, leading his team on a game-tying possession before the defense came up big in overtime. With a home bout against Ohio State upcoming, Penn State looks the part as a projected playoff team.
9. Texas A&M
With Alabama and Tennessee moving out of the playoff projection this week because of uninspired performance, the Aggies, who had a bye, are in. Matchups with LSU and Texas are the only contests left against nationally-ranked competition and Mike Elko’s squad hasn’t lose since the season opener. They’re red-hot and playing their best football at an opportune time.
10. Notre Dame
Speaking of the Fighting Irish, that victory at Texas A&M on Aug. 31 looks better and better as the season progresses. Notre Dame has side-stepped the loss to NIU with four straight impressive wins and still has opportunities to strengthen the resume against Navy, Army and USC. With this schedule, they should make the playoff as long as they get to 10 wins.
11. Iowa State
Defense prevails for the Cyclones. If you’re in control of your own conference championship and playoff destiny at midseason, you’re doing something right and this looks like a special group under Matt Campbell. The goal is to get past UCF this weekend before the open date to fine-tune any issues prior to hosting a pivotal contest with Texas Tech.
12. Boise State
Staying put as the projected Group of Five champion, the Broncos could potentially get in the top-four mix if they win out, with Oregon (who beat the Broncos) taking the Big Ten, and perhaps the ACC champion having one loss. Running back Ashton Jeanty is the Heisman frontrunner and would be a nightmare matchup in the postseason for a higher-seed.
Projected CFP first-round games
- (12) Boise State at (5) Ohio State — Winner plays (4) BYU
- (11) Iowa State at (6) Miami — Winner plays (3) Clemson
- (10) Notre Dame at (7) Georgia — Winner plays (2) Oregon
- (9) Texas A&M at (8) Penn State — Winner plays (1) Texas
Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 7 projection features Boise State at Ohio State, Iowa State at Miami, Notre Dame at Georgia and Texas A&M at Penn State. That’s two first-round home games for the Big Ten, one for the ACC and one for the SEC.
Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 team in the quarters, so second-seeded Alabama would be playing in New Orleans.
Alabama, Tennessee now on the bubble
This weekend’s SEC showdown at Neyland Stadium could be a playoff eliminator of sorts for the loser of Alabama-Tennessee. There are noticeable weaknesses for both teams and right now, the Crimson Tide’s offensive line is at a disadvantage going on the road to face one of the most talented defensive fronts nationally. The Vols have their own issues and need to get the passing game fixed with Nico Iamaleava at quarterback.
Army, Navy jump in the national rankings
For the first time since 1960, these two service academies are ranked inside the AP Top 25 this week. Bravo to Jeff Monken and Brian Newberry for what they’ve accomplished this season. The mission’s not over at either program, especially since both will play Notre Dame in the coming weeks before finishing out the schedule and trying to win the AAC.
SMU, Pitt rising in ACC race
All the buzz surrounds Miami and Clemson in ACC discussions, but don’t dismiss the Mustangs and Panthers. Pitt is unbeaten and plays SMU and the Tigers over the next five weeks. Pat Narduzzi has won the ACC before, but doing so with this transfer-laden squad and former Alabama signal caller Eli Holstein in charge would be his most impressive coaching feat.
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