In a fast-moving 2026 NFL Draft landscape, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has emerged as the new betting favorite to go No. 1 overall — a notable shift sparked by recent comments from Archie Manning, who cast doubt on grandson Arch Manning’s early departure from Texas.
Manning’s odds dropped from +450 to +850 on FanDuel Sportsbook, while Nussmeier jumped into the top spot at +340 as of Thursday afternoon.
The market reaction followed Archie Manning’s remarks to Texas Monthly, where he strongly suggested Arch would return to Texas for another year rather than declare after his first season as the Longhorns’ starter.
“Arch isn’t going to do that,” Archie said. “He’ll be at Texas.”
That tone marks a clear shift from Archie’s comments in December 2024, when he said he “hoped” Arch would stay in school. This firmer stance has already impacted both sportsbooks and early mock drafts.
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Meanwhile, Nussmeier is coming off a breakout 2024 campaign, finishing second in the SEC in passing yards (4,012) and touchdowns (29) while leading LSU through a smooth post-Jayden Daniels transition. With elite arm talent, experience and a returning core of playmakers, the fifth-year senior has vaulted into the spotlight for both the Heisman Trophy and top draft honors.
Despite the growing comparisons, Nussmeier had nothing but praise for Manning in July.
“Obviously, we’re both high-level competitors,” Nussmeier told Esports Insider. “We both play for two schools [that] have the same goal. … I’m definitely rooting for Arch. I think he’s a really good player. I love his swagger. I love his confidence, and I’m very excited to see his first season start, and I think he’s going to tear it up.”
Manning enters the 2025 season as Texas’ full-time starter and a Heisman favorite at +700, with Nussmeier close behind at +900, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Though Manning has attempted just 95 college passes for 969 yards and nine touchdowns, his pedigree and flashes of dual-threat potential continue to generate buzz.
Three other quarterbacks currently have shorter odds than Manning to go No. 1 overall: Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (+380), South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (+380) and Penn State’s Drew Allar (+470), according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
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