Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course in the rearview and the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway up next.
MORE: Sonoma entry list | In-Season Challenge hub
1. How realistic is an SVG title run in 2025?
Shane van Gisbergen looks entirely unbeatable on road courses at the moment, but there’s only one of those in the 10-race playoffs. Will his oval acumen improve enough by then to carry him deep in the postseason?
Shane van Gisbergen completed his weekend sweep of the Chicago Street Course on Sunday with methodical precision, claiming his second Cup Series win of 2025.
That’s not the surprising part.
What has caught many off guard, however, is that the Cup Series may have a legitimate problem on its hands for years to come in the form of the New Zealand product; an unstoppable force of nature on the sport’s growing list of road courses and steadfast in his dedication to improving on all the other ones.
The three-time Supercars champ is now a three-time Cup Series winner, and in extremely short order, becoming the most successful foreign-born driver in series history a mere 33 starts into his dang career.
It’s why he’s here, of course. Trackhouse Racing didn’t sign a driver with limited stock-car experience in his mid-30s and force him to move halfway around the world to not win races. It also didn’t sign him to just hold the occasional trophy in Victory Lane and hope for the best come playoff time. There’s a legitimate path to a championship run here; the only question is when?
Van Gisbergen’s current positioning is the most unique we’ve seen in the history of this playoff format — No. 88 sits a dismal 27th in the overall Cup Series standings with just 308 points, but is essentially almost expected to tie for the series lead in wins this weekend with another road course on tap. Already claiming two of the three such events in 2025, including a staggering 16.567-second victory margin in Mexico City — the largest winning margin on a road course since Riverside in 1979 — barring catastrophe, a third feels inevitable.
RELATED: Cup Series standings | 2025 schedule
A driver that good, and willing to make that kind of career move, isn’t going to let a steep learning curve on oval tracks weigh him down and keep him from actually seeing this thing through to the end. With all the applicable tools at his disposal and a burning desire to accomplish what is an abundantly obvious goal, who in their right mind would bet against this guy?
At this point, until proven otherwise and as long as multiple road courses still exist in the regular season, you can essentially pencil in SVG to every playoff field moving forward for the foreseeable future. What remains is just how far he’ll be able to take that berth, because of his — completely understandable — “niche” skillset.
SVG’s 22.947 average finish through 19 races reflects the rookie’s consistent struggles on NASCAR’s traditional venues, yet to finish better than 14th on a non-road course in 2025. With the playoffs just a handful of weeks away and nine of the 10 playoff races contested on ovals, including the championship finale at Phoenix on November 2, it’s obviously a bit of a stretch to think a title run could happen this year. But it’s not impossible in the least, and SVG is quite capable of making things interesting — he’s just gotta escape the Round of 16.
“Yeah, that first round is going to be very difficult,” van Gisbergen said after his Chicago win. “It’s got one track I haven’t been to, Gateway. It’s got my favorite oval in it, Darlington. I love that place. And then Bristol, which is what I’ve found (to be) the most difficult track. I feel like I may as well be driving the other way there. It’s so hard. It’s some pretty difficult places for me. But I feel like we’re still making massive leaps on the oval, and there’s still a few weeks left to keep getting better.”
The 36-year-old has accrued 11 playoff points to date — nearly half that of Kyle Larson, who has the most — and it’s conceivable he’ll pad that at least a bit more by September. That could mark the difference between advancing or not into the next three-race round of the playoffs. The Charlotte Roval then potentially awaits him in the Round of 12, and he’ll be favored to win there whether he’s still in title contention or not. Assuming a win there, a ludicrously difficult Round of 8 against NASCAR’s elite remains, but this is absolutely a “never say never” kind of sport — after all, who had him winning his literal first NASCAR start at Chicago in 2023?
There’s no denying SVG is going to improve on ovals over time, but it’s not a given that anybody matches his road-course prowess at any point in his NASCAR tenure.
If the oval ascension comes sooner than later, we could be seeing a non-stop flurry of rugby balls being punted from Victory Lane over the next half-decade-plus.
And one of them might just be after taking the checkered for the Bill France Cup.
MORE: Shane van Gisbergen has raised the bar in NASCAR road racing
2. How concerning is William Byron’s summer slump?
William Byron, for the second year in a row, clinched a playoff spot before anybody else and raced for months like the title was his to lose. No. 24 also hasn’t won since February, and is suddenly mired in a career-worst stretch at the moment. What gives?
Fresh off his first two Championship 4 appearances, William Byron stormed out of the gate in 2025 by winning his second straight Daytona 500 and proceeding through the first several months looking like he’d easily be racing for the title once again come November.
The wins have dried up since the Daytona triumph, but at first it was no biggie — No. 24 was still manhandling the field, holding the first or second spot in the standings literally every week this season by virtue of a steadily increasing points cushion.
That dominance has evaporated, however, and Byron suddenly finds himself ensnared in an eight-race stretch with five finishes of 24th or worse, the worst duo of which coming the past two weeks.
What once seemed an insurmountable standings lead has shrunk to just 13 points over teammate Chase Elliott after a catastrophic 40th-place finish (and overall weekend) at Chicago, where mechanical issues ended his day after completing just one lap. The summer slide has transformed NASCAR’s early-season favorite into a driver fighting to maintain momentum as the playoffs approach.
Byron’s midseason struggles aren’t new, either. For whatever reason, Byron has made summer inconsistency an annual tradition. Is it a concerning one, though?
Perhaps not.
In 2023, Byron managed just six top-10 finishes in the second half of the regular season with a rough stretch of five races finishing 14th or worse baked in (albeit bookended with victories) — yet still advanced to the Championship 4. Last season, the Charlotte native posted just five top 10s in the second half, this time with no victories … and again reached Phoenix as a title contender.
Perhaps, with a playoff spot clinched, he and crew chief Rudy Fugle utilize summer races as experimental sessions to a degree, while focusing resources on championship-critical races. If so, this strategy has historically worked — Byron has posted 16 top-10 finishes and 11 top fives in his last 20 playoff races, clearly able to turn on the jets come crunch time.
Despite his struggles, Byron remains well-positioned for the playoffs, with his 12 playoff points ranking fourth among race winners. It’s hard not to think he should have a good deal more than that, though, with several near wins wiping the chances of a first-round walk-in-the-park all but away. Larson’s 23 playoff points and Denny Hamlin’s 19 — with more wins feeling imminent for both — represent significant advantages heading into the elimination rounds.
The concern extends even beyond points to momentum, though. Byron’s early-season performance proved his speed remains elite, but his summer slide — even with past history on his side — raises questions about whether the No. 24 team can recapture that form when elimination pressure mounts, as these past few weeks have displayed an uncharacteristic outward display of frustration for Byron.
There are few drivers generally more unshakeable in the series, however, and his track record suggests optimism. But the margin for error has narrowed considerably.
While history suggests he’ll rebound in the playoffs, the championship landscape has shifted around him with the field feeling significantly more wide open than even a month ago. The next seven races and beyond will determine whether his struggles represent strategic patience or championship-killing complacency.
The points leader’s early season crown may be slipping, but it hasn’t fallen off completely just yet.
Perhaps all it needs is an adjustment, and we’ll once again be toasting the king-in-waiting this weekend in Wine Country.
3. SVG dices up ‘difficult’ first round of playoffs
2025 Chicago Street Race winner Shane van Gisbergen gives his thoughts on the Cup Series Playoffs and how challenging the first-round gauntlet will be.
4. NASCAR Insights: Road-course edition
You won’t be surprised to see who’s at the top of the list for a handful of categories here, but there are some interesting names in the mix — some of whom are still looking for a playoff berth. (Credit: Racing Insights)
| Rank | Speed | Long run | Passing | Defense | Restarts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane van Gisbergen | Shane van Gisbergen | Shane van Gisbergen | Joey Logano | Ryan Preece |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | Christopher Bell | Chase Briscoe | Denny Hamlin | Christopher Bell |
| 3 | Chase Briscoe | William Byron | Kyle Busch | Brad Keselowski | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | Michael McDowell | Chase Elliott | Ryan Blaney | Bubba Wallace | AJ Allmendinger |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | Alex Bowman | AJ Allmendinger | Ross Chastain | Alex Bowman |
| 6 | William Byron | Michael McDowell | Tyler Reddick | William Byron | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | Kyle Busch | Christopher Bell | Ty Gibbs | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | AJ Allmendinger | Tyler Reddick | William Byron | Ryan Preece | William Byron |
| 9 | Kyle Larson | Chris Buescher | Ty Gibbs | Austin Dillon | Ty Gibbs |
| 10 | Chase Elliott | Chase Briscoe | Bubba Wallace | Chase Briscoe | Tyler Reddick |
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Sonoma Raceway weekend
Playoff standings: How national series fields shake up heading into Sonoma
Power Rankings: Is Allmendinger the next road ace to shake up playoff field?
NASCAR‘s Moran breaks down caution on final lap at Chicago
Happy returns: ‘Epic‘ grit from No. 88 crewman helps muscle SVG to Chicago triumph again
Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman collide in Chicago scrap; cooler heads prevail
In-Season Challenge: Update after Round 2 at Chicago
Ty Dillon on messing with Brad Keselowski: ‘It flowed pretty well‘
Ross Chastain, Joey Logano confront each other after Chicago run-in
How mechanical issues plagued McDowell‘s Chicago run
Reddick, No. 45 team turn late strategy gamble into third-place finish at Chicago
Trackhouse owner Marks comments on Suárez‘s departure: ‘It was time to move on‘
@nascarcasm: Fake texts to Chicago winner SVG
Read the full article here