It’s hard to believe the 2025 NBA Finals ended just more than a week ago, as free agency has been fast and furious, with more player movement than initially expected.
Damian Lillard? Now a free agent after the Milwaukee Bucks waived him using the stretch provision. The Bucks also added free-agent center Myles Turner on a four-year, $107 million contract in an effort to keep superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo happy.
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Kevin Durant? He’s on the Houston Rockets after a blockbuster trade, along with several notable free agents, including Dorian Finney-Smith.
You can keep up with all of the latest moves in free agency here, but we thought it would be prudent to ask oddsmakers what they’ve thought of the deals so far.
“Houston, overall, I thought has been very good,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata (a BetMGM book) in Atlantic City said. “Atlanta as well. Still waiting to see what happens with Giannis.”
Which teams have improved their NBA title odds in free agency and the draft? Which have gotten noticeably worse?
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Yahoo Sports asked Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook — and its NBA handicapper — about his most improved and least improved teams in free agency. Sherman noted he had three Western Conference teams (Thunder, Rockets, Nuggets) power-rated higher than his first Eastern Conference team (Cavaliers).
Note: Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Four teams that have improved
Houston Rockets
Opening odds: +800 (BetMGM opened 2025-26 title odds after Durant deal)
Current odds: +800
Sherman: “I had opened them at 12-1 when we first got going, anticipating they were going to be aggressive, and they’re currently at +800. Adding Clint Capela, Durant, extending Steven Adams, signing Fred VanVleet, they’ve done nothing but positive things. I’ve always liked the direction under head coach Ime Udoka. They’ve also had the single-most impactful move with the Durant trade. They needed someone to close games, but Durant going there attracts other players like Capela and Finney-Smith.”
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Denver Nuggets
Opening odds: 16-1
Current odds: +600
Sherman: “I’ve been impressed with the moves they’ve made. The Michael Porter Jr. trade isn’t as enthralling with them giving up that unprotected first-rounder pick, but Cam Johnson is a little more reliable than Porter Jr. Bruce Brown on a minimum deal is a great pickup. Dario Saric was just a bench guy, now they got a backup center in Jonas Valančiūnas. Adding Tim Hardaway Jr., he could put up 20 a night off the bench. You’re seeing that separation in the West, with Oklahoma City, then Houston and Denver neck and neck behind that, and then a gap after that. I was at 16-1 on Denver, went to 9-1 yesterday and now I’m at 8-1.”
Orlando Magic
Opening odds: 18-1
Current odds: 12-1
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Sherman: “I remember last season when they were healthy, they started the season out so well and people had high expectations. Then they had the Paolo Banchero injury and the Franz Wagner injury when Banchero was ready to come back. They never really found their footing after that. They took a large leap in that open Eastern Conference with the Desmond Bane trade.”
Atlanta Hawks
Opening odds: 250-1
Current odds: 25-1
Sherman: “Taking Kristaps Porziņģis because of a salary dump from Boston was a great move, and they added Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard. Jalen Johnson is coming back [from a shoulder injury] as well.”
LeBron James is back with the Lakers for now, but Los Angeles hasn’t done much in free agency. (AP Foto/Mark J. Terrill)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Four teams that have work to do
Los Angeles Lakers
Opening odds: 15-1
Current odds: 16-1
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Sherman: “They’ve mostly been sitting on the sidelines, only move is signing Jake LaRavia. But they lost Finney-Smith and haven’t addressed the center position, even though they’re trying to. I’m sitting at 16-1, but I’ll raise them from there if they don’t get a center.”
San Antonio Spurs
Opening odds: 25-1
Current odds: 50-1
Sherman: “I opened them low with Houston thinking they could make a run at Giannis or Durant. They really haven’t done much and are holding steady with their draft picks and this growth process. I went from 16- to 40-1 on them.”
Boston Celtics
Opening odds: 16-1
Current odds: 40-1
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Sherman: “With the Jayson Tatum Achilles injury, they were going to have to dump some salary anyway, but compounding that with the Jrue Holiday deal and Porziņģis trade (and losing Luke Kornet), I’m out to 50-1 on them. They only have Anfernee Simons, Luka Garza and Josh Minott coming in.”
Indiana Pacers
Opening odds: 66-1
Current odds: 80-1
Sherman: “I feel bad for the Indiana fan base. You’re one win away from winning the NBA championship and then you lose Tyrese Haliburton and now Turner. They may be lucky to make the playoffs next season.”
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