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Maybe the lesson from the Miami Dolphins the past couple seasons is we need to quit comparing any good offense to “The Greatest Show on Turf.”
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The 2023 Dolphins put up 70 points on the Denver Broncos — a result that looks really weird given the state of the Dolphins and the Broncos’ defense these days — and there were endless comparisons to the 1999-2001 St. Louis Rams. Many, many comparisons. So many comparisons. Seriously, the comparisons were non-stop.
Less than two years later, it seems the high point from this Dolphins era might be that Week 3 win against a then-winless Broncos team. It turns out the Dolphins were not, in fact, the next coming of “The Greatest Show on Turf.”
It’s hard to look at the 2025 Dolphins and be overly optimistic. Tua Tagovailoa continues to be underappreciated but his concussion issues became a big story again in 2024. Tyreek Hill’s numbers took a stunning drop, and the team and Hill’s camp had to smooth things over after his proclamation that he was done in Miami. Jaylen Waddle’s production fell off a cliff, too. The explosive plays on offense disappeared. The offensive line was bad. The defense got a lot worse. There has been plenty of offseason trade speculation with cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith, two of the Dolphins’ few bright spots last season.
Head coach Mike McDaniel has gone from a likable whiz kid to being on the hot seat, especially after it was revealed that some players were repeatedly late for meetings despite being fined. That makes it seem like he’s losing the locker room. Maybe the real warning sign came when players revolted against and practically ran off 2023 defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, one of the great coordinators of this era. Last season, Fangio turned the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense into the best in the NFL and finally got himself a Super Bowl ring. The Dolphins could have used a coach like that.
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Everything in Miami has turned into a mess, and it happened in a hurry.
“We went to the playoffs two years and people liked some of the stuff we did, and then last year, we struggled early and couldn’t get out of it and now everybody wants us all fired,” Dolphins general manager Chris Grier said.
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Maybe the Dolphins can turn things back around. Perhaps McDaniel can recapture his magic, Tagovailoa stays healthy and productive, De’Von Achane rediscovers the explosiveness he had as a rookie, Hill again becomes the receiver he was in 2022-23, Waddle also bounces back and the defense holds it together. That’s just a lot of what-ifs. And to think, the Dolphins are just a season removed from being an 11-win playoff team.
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At very least, the 1999 Rams probably don’t have to worry anymore about the Dolphins passing them.
Offseason grade
Like last season, the Dolphins lost one of the highest-paid free agents to switch teams when defensive tackle Christian Wilkins signed with the Raiders. This time it was safety Jevon Holland, who signed for $45.3 million over three years with the Giants. The reason the Dolphins keep losing coveted free agents is they’ve mismanaged the salary cap, without a playoff win to show for it either. The only player to get a deal worth more than $6.25 million total was guard James Daniels, who signed for $24 million over three years. He’ll replace Robert Jones, a starter last year who left for the Cowboys. It’s an upgrade for Miami — one of the rare ones for the team this offseason — but Daniels is coming off a torn Achilles. In the draft, the Dolphins had just two picks in the top 142. They used them on defensive tackle Kenneth Grant in the first round and offensive lineman Jonah Savaiinaea in the second. Those picks are unexciting but were needed to help the lines.
Grade: D+
Quarterback report
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 72.9% completion percentage, but that is misleading. Tagovailoa became a very safe passer last season. He threw deep (20 or more yards) on just 6% of his passes, the lowest mark of any quarterback with at least 100 attempts, according to Pro Football Focus. In 2023, that mark was 11.3%. His average depth of target was also last in the NFL among regular starters at 6.1 yards. It was 8.1 the season before. That could have been due to a bad offensive line, his receivers having an off year or trying to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid being hit after yet another concussion. An offense that thrived on its speed in 2023 relied to a shocking extent on short passes to tight end Jonnu Smith last season. Tagovailoa was still fairly productive, as he has been nearly his whole career, but this conservative version of Tagovailoa won’t get the Dolphins very far.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The Dolphins have a win total of 8.5 at BetMGM, their lowest since 2020, and are the biggest underdogs (+155) to make the postseason that they’ve been since that season. With some turnover on defense and question marks on the offensive line, will Tua Tagovailoa be able to stay healthy and score enough points to cover up for those deficiencies? Tyreek Hill (30-to-1) could be worth a look as a long-shot wager for AP Offensive Player of the Year.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “The price has come down significantly on Tyreek Hill — he’s currently the WR16 in early Yahoo ADP. But even at that nice price, I’m nervous. Hill didn’t have a catch over 30 yards after Week 1 last season, which speaks to Tua Tagovailoa’s limitations and injury-mandated playing style (quick throws preferred). Obviously Tua is still the QB here. Hill also enters his age-31 season, and I’m concerned he might go off the reservation if Miami has a rocky start. Mike McDaniel has to re-earn his Circle of Trust privileges. I’ll be underweight on Hill this draft season.”
Stat to remember
Tyreek Hill averaged 112.4 yards per game in 2023, and that dropped practically in half to 56.4 last season. Hill played through a wrist injury that required surgery after the season, and maybe that was the reason for the stunning drop, but Hill’s signature explosiveness was nowhere to be found. Hill had four of the top 14 fastest ball carrier plays in 2023, via Next Gen Stats, and none of the top 20 in 2024. The Dolphins had 12 40-yard pass plays in 2023, tied for fourth-best in the NFL, and had just three last season, which was tied for the fewest in the NFL. Hill’s disappearance was a big part of that. It wasn’t smooth for Hill off the field either, with him saying “I’m out, bro” regarding his future with the Dolphins. Hill even said in late May he didn’t deserve to be a captain after his post-Week 18 outburst. Those comments overshadowed that he seemed to remove himself from the game in the second half of that finale, a terrible look that he somehow avoided heavy criticism. Hill said he has to prove himself again, and that’s accurate on many levels.
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Burning question
Who is the real De’Von Achane?
Achane wasn’t bad last season. But a drop from 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie to 4.5 last season was telling. He had 13 broken tackles as a rookie, then seven last season on 100 more attempts, via Pro Football Reference. He had five 20-yard carries and three 40-yard carries on 203 attempts last season after posting eight 20-yard runs and five 40-yard runs on 103 attempts the year before. As a team, the Dolphins went from a league-leading 5.1 yards per carry to 4.0 last season, which ranked 28th. Achane did some things well. A 4.5-yard average isn’t bad and his 78 catches led all running backs by a wide margin. But those who expected a big season out of Achane didn’t figure on him being a reliable grinder. His big-play ability is what made him special as a rookie, and we rarely saw it in 2024. If Achane repeats last season, there’s nothing wrong with that. But the Dolphins could greatly benefit from some of those explosive plays returning.
De’Von Achane had 907 rushing yards and 592 receiving yards for the Dolphins last season. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
(Al Bello via Getty Images)
Best-case scenario
The Dolphins struggled in many different ways last season, with very few players playing up to or beyond their career norms, and they still went 8-9. That also was with Tua Tagovailoa missing six games, and the Dolphins’ offense has generally been unwatchable in games he has missed. A bad season has to force Mike McDaniel to reevaluate himself, and we’re not far removed from everyone praising his scheme. There are big-play threats on the roster, even if they were quiet last season. Tagovailoa might start pushing the ball downfield more if his receivers show up, Achane could combine his rookie season explosiveness with his second season reliability and the defense could be at least decent. A rebound from the offense could put the Dolphins back in playoff contention. Let’s just avoid the 1999 Rams comparisons if that happens.
Nightmare scenario
When the Dolphins made the playoffs two years ago, everyone pointed out they beat just one team with a winning record, and that was the Dallas Cowboys at home on a last-second field goal. In 2024, the Dolphins looked very much like their 2023 success was fraudulent. Even though Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t get the credit he deserves, his health history is very scary and he hasn’t been the type of quarterback who can carry Miami to a higher level. If Tagovailoa spends another season as a checkdown specialist, Tyreek Hill looks like he’s careening off the cliff and the rest of the Dolphins are mediocre again, this could get pretty ugly. If the Dolphins have double-digit losses, it seems likely they’d fire Mike McDaniel, find an exit ramp from the Tyreek Hill ride and probably look into potential outs in Tagovailoa’s contract. That would start a rebuild for a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season.
The crystal ball says
Very little about the Dolphins inspires confidence. The roster is not better than a year ago, when they had a losing record. And last season, the Dolphins faced the easiest schedule in the NFL, via DVOA. The path back to the playoffs is for all of the players who had down years, especially on offense, to rebound to their 2023 levels. That’s not impossible, and it’s not like the Dolphins were far out of the playoff race last season. But the best guess is that the offense never reaches its level from early in the 2023 season again, and an eroding roster posts a worse record than last season. If that happens, the Dolphins probably will blow everything up next offseason. That would be crushing for a fan base that finally had a brief moment of hope a couple years ago.
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