Racing Insights: Spoilers loom large for Atlanta summer race

Back-to-back first-time winners in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season have certainly thrown the start of the summer stretch for a loop and it’s only going to get wilder as the circuit shifts to Saturday night’s showdown at EchoPark Speedway (7 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

As the calendar reaches the halfway point of the season, let’s take a look at who the projected favorite for Atlanta is, along with other drivers to keep an eye on, with stats provided by Racing Insights.

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No surprise to see a Team Penske driver top the predicted results as Ryan Blaney slots into P1. Blaney has finished inside the top 10 in the last six Atlanta races, which is the longest active streak at the track. He owns an average finish of 6.7 in the seven races at the track since the reconfiguration and has scored the most points of any Cup driver during that span (301).

While Daniel Suárez has been the only true surprise winner at Atlanta in the seven races it has served as a drafting track, the numbers are starting to shift in favor of underdogs entering the weekend.

Going back to the Atlanta race in the spring, Carson Hocevar, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Todd Gilliland and John Hunter Nemechek ranked in the top four for passing, according to NASCAR Insights, and all four drivers finished inside the top 15. Hocevar, Stenhouse and Nemechek have all shown top-10 speed at points throughout the year and Atlanta could provide the opportunity to reward just that — especially for Stenhouse — whose four Cup wins have all come at superspeedways.

Suárez’s Trackhouse Racing teammates are already locked into the playoffs, and there’d be no better time for the No. 99 Chevrolet driver to get all three cars in than under the lights Saturday. Suárez has been one of the best drivers at the track recently with three top-two finishes in the last four Atlanta races, including his thrilling win in the 2024 spring race.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE BUSCH: The two-time Cup Series champion has been hit with bad luck all season long, but Atlanta has been really good for the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing driver. He’s finished top 10 in all five starts in the Peach State since joining RCR and has top 10s in eight of the last 15 superspeedway races.

AUSTIN CINDRIC: He remains winless at Atlanta, but the fourth-year Cup driver is a force to be reckoned with whenever the circuit goes to a superspeedway. He’s the most recent winner at such tracks, taking the checkered flag at Talladega, and the No. 2 Team Penske driver has led double-digit laps in the last four Atlanta races.

AJ ALLMENDINGER: The longtime Cup veteran isn’t really known for his drafting-track prowess, but he’s been one to watch at Atlanta. He has no finish worse than 16th in his three starts on the configuration and finished third in the 2023 summer race.

WILLIAM BYRON: The No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports driver has produced mixed results on the Atlanta superspeedway, but he owns two wins at the track and has 10 top 10s in the last 13 drafting-track events.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE QUAKER STATE 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

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