As running backs get older, durability takes the focus over capability in fantasy football — just like buying a used car. I don’t envy used car salespeople.
Think about the job from their perspective. You’re on the lot, so they know you’re looking for something. I’ve yet to meet someone who’s “just browsing” for vehicles. But still, not just any car will do. One works but has too many miles on it. Another with less tread on it but makes a noise. A third is just right, but the price is too high. The mental gymnastics to convince you to buy any of them would be exhausting.
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And yet, we do this every year in drafts.
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Like buying a used car, navigating draft cost of older RBs feels like price negotiations. However, once you apply the necessary context, we can see which player is a value or not.
Christian McCaffrey – 49ers
“Yeah, I feel great. Very cautionary stuff. If we had a game, I would play, but just trying to be smart right now. But still training, still getting a bunch of work in, so that come Week 1, we’re ready to roll.”
That was Christian McCaffrey in August 2024.
We all know what happened next. The feelings of betrayal and disappointment for some fantasy managers are probably about as acute as McCaffrey’s calf pain back then. Few were ready for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s bombshell presser after Week 1. Even fewer knew what bilateral Achilles tendinitis meant. And now, we’re supposed to let bygones be bygones.
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I understand the hesitation, but let’s talk through it.
McCaffrey hasn’t had second-round value in drafts since his sophomore season. Sure, the reasons for the price drop are sound. He just turned 29 and will be returning from multiple lower-body injuries. Maybe that was Father Time cosplaying as Shanahan, reminding us no RB lasts forever (unless you’re Frank Gore). However, I can’t find too many other rushers who project for the same type of workload as San Francisco’s workhorse.
On the one hand, we didn’t see McCaffrey until early November. By then, it was likely too late to stage a comeback in fantasy leagues. But, on the other hand, it was encouraging to see the 49ers instantly put him back in an RB1 role. Over his three full games, McCaffrey was one of 15 RBs to earn over 60.0% of their team’s carries. Plus, when you apply situational context to his totes, there was no question about who was in charge of the backfield for SF.
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Early-Down Attempts: 9th (out of 23 eligible RBs — team carry rate greater than 50.0%)
The opportunity was there, but the production waned. McCaffrey hit four-year lows in yards after contact per attempt and forced missed tackle rate. Some might point to the injury, but that clip of him flying through Buffalo’s defensive front says otherwise. Let’s also remember the state of the 49ers’ offensive line last year.
They ranked 24th in run-block win rate by season’s end, and their 1.3 adjusted yards before contact sat slightly above the league average. In other words, two things could be true at once. McCaffrey’s ailments sapped some of his burst, and San Francisco’s blocking had some issues. In either case, carrying the ball isn’t the only way the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year generates fantasy points.
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First off, look at the shot Brock Purdy took before launching the ball downfield. Second, look who caught it:
Of course, McCaffrey’s receiving talent is no secret. In 2023, he averaged 10.3 PPR PPG just from catching the ball. No other rusher was in the double digits. Given his health and the state of the offense, his pass-catching production naturally took a step back (8.4 PPR PPG). But, again, his involvement in the passing game is something we can’t ignore.
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Routes per Team Dropback: 1st (out of 31 eligible RBs — route rate greater than 40.0%)
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Air Yards per Target: 1st
So, let’s bring it all together. Remove the name from the equation. I’m talking about an RB who just handled (for a short span) 60.0% of his team’s carries and earned a +10.0% target share. Those benchmarks align with the workload of a top-8 rusher going back to 2015.
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But OK, let’s bring the name back into the conversation.
I’m no doctor, but I’m willing to let “no restrictions” mean we can assume McCaffrey can ramp up activity and be a normal participant in camp. Or, said another way, we’re right back where we were last summer. Yes, re-injury is possible but not predictable.
Finally, let’s try and read the tea leaves surrounding the 49ers’ offseason moves.
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Traded away Jordan Mason, who took over the majority of McCaffrey’s role
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Their only RB addition was a Day 3 pick
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The WR signings were either low-dollar FAs or late-round targets
Coaches and front office personnel can say a lot with their mouths, but they often have a limited vocabulary with their wallets. And with Brandon Aiyuk likely to start the season on the PUP list, it’s hard not to see McCaffrey as a key contributor in both facets of the offense. Accordingly, until we get the first report of a “strain” or “tweak,” McCaffrey’s reduced cost will be a boon to fantasy managers in 2025.
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Verdict: McCaffrey at a late-first, early-second draft cost should be considered a value. I’d place him in the same tier as Jahmyr Gibbs and De’Von Achane and would take him as high as the mid-first round.
Derrick Henry – Ravens
Honestly, when I mentioned Frank Gore regarding players who defied the age cliff, I should’ve just said Derrick Henry instead.
I’d be willing to bet that the frustration over Henry coming from defenders isn’t about his power. At 6-2, 247, I’d expect to be sent to the shadow realm by a stiff arm. It’s his breakaway speed that’s made me throw my TV remote. However, the combination of the two has kept him in a bell-cow role for the last seven years.
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Henry’s carries per game have earned top-5 marks since 2018. Even in 2021, before he fractured his foot, Tennessee put the ball in his belly 27 times per game. Then-sophomore Jonathan Taylor was the next-closest RB at 19 a week. And it’d be one thing if Henry were still with the Titans, and his continued usage at 30 years young was a show of respect for their second-place all-time rusher. But he came to Baltimore and seemingly turned back the clock.
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2024: 5.9 (Yards per Carry), 24.9% (Forced Missed Tackle Rate), 11.4% (Explosive Run Rate)
Every year, the naysayers (me, the naysayers are me) cry out like Jesse Pinkman that Henry can’t keep getting away with this. And yet, you could expect at least two chunk runs from No. 22 every week. Normally, I’d continue my bias against an AFC North rival. Historically speaking, only Tiki Barber and Curtis Martin have had consecutive campaigns with over 300 carries past the age of 30. But I can’t dismiss the benefits of his situation.
The gravity that Lamar Jackson commands is a nightmare for defenders. Henry saw stacked boxes (eight or more men) at the second-highest rate on early-down rushes. It didn’t matter. The Ravens’ line gave Henry the seventh-most adjusted yards before contact, and he did the rest. His 44.1% success rate was second only to Bijan Robinson, who’s almost a decade younger. And seeing as the only newsworthy item out of the Baltimore backfield is Keaton Mitchell’s health, we should expect to see Henry in another position to lead the league in all-purpose yards in 2025.
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Verdict: Henry’s mid-first ADP is reasonable, given his projected workload and offensive situation. I’d keep him ahead of RBs like Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs.
Alvin Kamara – Saints
A common misconception about drafting skill players is that they must come from good teams. It helps, no question. I use it as a tie-breaker myself. But if your knee-jerk reaction is to say that I’m wrong, then I’ll point to a Raiders’ RB going in the first round. There’s a runner with either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson Sr. (with a questionable shoulder) as his QB going shortly after the Vegas rookie. If anything, volume is king.
Saints fans don’t need me to list off the issues plaguing their offense. But I’ll do it anyway. From injuries to a QB carousel that nobody wanted to ride, New Orleans quickly went from the team that stomped Dallas in Week 2 to below-average in every efficiency metric by Week 18. But even at 29, Alvin Kamara hasn’t shown many signs of decline.
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2024: 52.4% (team rush rate), 17.2% (target share), 3.21 (adj. yards after contact per rush)
The Saints drafted Kendre Miller on Day 2 last year. He’s played 96 snaps. Four other RBs ran the ball for New Orleans last year. Their combined target total (38) is less than half of Kamara’s (87). And his 2025 outlook doesn’t look any different.
The Saints brought back Brandin Cooks, and Taysom Hill is a long shot to see action early in the year. Assuming the offensive line can stay together on the field, Kamara can give whichever QB an easy outlet to keep the offense moving. And without much competition behind him, as they say in The Bayou, let the good times roll.
Verdict: Kamara’s fourth/fifth-round ADP is a value at current cost. His receiving work puts him ahead of starters like James Conner but behind players with similar offensive uncertainty (Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall).
Aaron Jones – Vikings
I figured that by releasing Aaron Jones, the Packers had doubts about how much longer he could contribute to an offense. Clearly, Jones disagreed with their assessment.
It was only five years ago that the sombrero-wearing rusher posted back-to-back campaigns with a top-12 mark in explosive rushing rate. Combined with his double-digit target share, Jones was an early-round staple. His ADP sits near the start of the middle rounds (83.2 overall), and I understand why.
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2024: 59.2% (team rush rate), 3.39 (adj. yards after contact per rush), 1.30 (yards per route run)
Jones has completed two full seasons throughout his eight-year career. I’d be willing to bet he’s had more types of sprains than the varieties of shrimp Bubba could name in Forrest Gump. Anyway, a laundry list of lower-body injuries isn’t something you want on your mind when drafting a 30-year-old RB. Yes, we just did this exercise with McCaffrey and concluded he’s worth the risk. But McCaffrey’s team didn’t trade for a dual-threat backup.
From Weeks 1-7, Jordan Mason ranked 12th in rushing success rate. He was right behind Chase Brown and Saquon Barkley. Mason was the only non-McCaffrey RB to run a route on more than 50.0% of Purdy’s dropbacks. Simply put, he can do what Jones can do. And with the team looking to charge ahead into the J.J. McCarthy era, Jones’ time as the unquestioned starter may be over.
Verdict: Even as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3, Jones carries significant risk with concerns about his weekly and season-long outlook. I’d only take him in RB-heavy builds, should he cede more work to Mason.
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