Advance to Victory Lane: More twists and turns looming at Charlotte

Talladega once again delivered on its reputation for chaos, shaking up the playoff standings and producing a thriller. Even amongst all the mayhem, we can start to get a sense of who the biggest threats are to vie for a title in Phoenix.

Sunday‘s Bank of America Roval 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) is no cakewalk, especially with a new track reconfiguration that aims to stir up more postseason drama.

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William Byron has already locked into the Round of 8 on points. He’s virtually steered clear of playoff issues so far, with only one wreck and a lengthy pit stop for adjustments at Watkins Glen, so that’s one in and seven more to go. Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are two excellent road-course racers, setting themselves up nicely to lock in on points no matter the outcome, as they each sit plus-50 above the elimination line. Byron, Bell and Larson were three-fourths of last year’s Championship 4 and each of them own wins at the final three tracks (Homestead-Miami, Martinsville and Phoenix).

However, it’s from Denny Hamlin on down in the standings you can argue that the chance to advance is still wide open. The Roval is another wild-card race where anything can happen at any moment. Compared to other road courses, the Roval has averaged more lead changes (12), race cautions (7.8) and final stage cautions (4.3) since its debut in 2018. Not to mention nine or more playoff drivers have encountered various problems in four of the last six Roval races.

Who knows who will rise and fall Sunday, but after six races the playoff puzzle will finally start to take shape.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman continues to lead drivers with the most points scored in the postseason (189) and now he goes to one of his best tracks. At the Roval, Bowman has the best average finish with at least four starts (6.4), scored the sixth-most points there in only five races (165) and he’s scored the most points on road courses this year (146).

TYLER REDDICK: Pressure is mounting for the Regular Season Champion, who has finished 20th or worse in the last four races. The Charlotte circuit is in his wheelhouse, though, with top-10 finishes in the last three Roval races and an average finish of seventh. He’s also statically been the second-strongest playoff driver on road courses this season.

RYAN BLANEY: The reigning champ has a Roval win. However, his finishes since then have slipped out of the top 10 in the Next Gen era. Still, he’s scored the most points on the Roval (220) but could find trouble if others rise.

JOEY LOGANO: Speaking of drivers rising, Logano has five top 10s on the Roval, tied with Bowman. A top-10 finish — or win — may just be enough to point his way into the next round. The issue? Logano has a 17.5 average finish on road courses this year.

AJ ALLMENDINGER/SVG: The possibility of non-playoff drivers sweeping this round is not out of the question. Allmendinger kept playoff drivers at bay in last year’s race en route to an upset win and he’s a perfect four-for-four on the Roval in the Xfinity Series. If he can’t get it done, there’s a good chance his teammate can. Van Gisbergen opens as the favorite to win and he was second at Watkins Glen and was about half a lap from playing spoiler until Chris Buescher muscled his way to Victory Lane.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR THE BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.