One of the worst-kept secrets in college football is the fact that many expect Arch Manning to spend two years as the starting quarterback at Texas instead of rushing to the NFL. The redshirt sophomore was the only top-100 QB in his class to sit two years as a backup, and many expect that he again won’t rush his process.
This weekend, though, news came out of the NFL that just might complicate that decision. New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr unexpectedly announced his retirement Saturday from the NFL. The Saints have a truly open quarterback competition between second round pick Tyler Shough, Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler.
The Saints will give Shough a fair shake after expending the 40th pick on him in the draft, but none of the three options are considered long-term answers at the position. Unless something serious changes, New Orleans should cruise to the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in desperate need of answers at quarterback.
For Arch, how tempting must the opportunity be to play in your hometown for the same franchise that brought the Manning name to the world stage?
The Manning family is Louisiana royalty, and has been for more than 50 years. Patriarch Archie Manning moved from Mississippi to Louisiana when he became starting quarterback of the New Orleans Saints in 1971. He went on to earn multiple Pro Bowls and a spot in the Saints Ring of Honor and Hall of Fame. While his No. 8 is not officially retired by the franchise, it has not been issued since he departed in 1982.
Because of his roots, Peyton, Eli and Cooper Manning all grew up in New Orleans and attended Isidore Newman School, only three miles from the Superdome. Arch, son of Cooper, also grew up in New Orleans, played at Isidore Newman, and broke all of his legendary uncles’ records. Peyton and Eli both put together legendary NFL careers, and Arch is regarded as one of the greatest quarterback recruits in history.
Arch went to Texas to blaze his own path, separate from his grandfather and uncles. However, it’s been more than 40 years since a Manning put on Saints black and gold. It would be a legendary homecoming.
Arch Manning in 2026 NFL Draft? Could the prospect of going No. 1 cut Texas QB’s college career short?
Will Backus
The only drawback? Manning is only now set to enter his first season as a starting quarterback. He started two games for the Longhorns in 2024, but primarily backed up Quinn Ewers. He has thrown only 95 attempts in two years. While he was the No. 1 recruit in the nation in 2023, there is a long way to go before he can even establish himself as a serious NFL prospect, much less the No. 1 pick.
NFL success has never correlated more with collegiate experience. Out of 32 projected starting quarterbacks, only two did not play multiple years as a primary starter at the FBS level. One of them was Kyler Murray, who only left because he won the Heisman Trophy. Overall, the 32 projected starters averaged 34 starts and 9,500 yards passing in their college careers. This year alone, Penn State’s Drew Allar and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier turned down potential first round status to pick up a crucial second year as a starter.
Additionally, the Manning family has always been patient. Both Peyton and Eli spent four years playing at their respective schools en route to becoming the No. 1 overall draft pick. Even patriarch Archie Manning started 30 games over three seasons during his College Football Hall of Fame career. Even if Manning had a legendary season, he wouldn’t come close to those numbers with only two starts entering 2025.
The younger Manning heads into his first year as the starting quarterback at Texas with a chance to lead the program to its first national championship in 20 years. There’s plenty for him to accomplish at the college level. Peyton and Archie are both College Football Hall of Famers, while Eli had his No. 10 retired at Ole Miss. This was never a simple stopover before embarking on his NFL career; the Mannings value college football.
Still, New Orleans is New Orleans. The Saints are the Saints. The connections between the Manning family, this franchise and this city are hard to ignore. He only has to ask his namesake, Archie, about the stature of being a historic quarterback in the French Quarter. He would become a folk hero before ever taking a snap, and play in the shadow of where he spent his formative years.
Granted, chances are when it’s time to make a decision, Manning will opt to come back to school. The Manning family rarely makes mistakes, and the chance to develop over a two-year period isn’t something taken for granted. And regardless of where he ends up, Manning will be a game-changing prospect. New Orleans even has the chance to draft another local son, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, who is now ironically the offensive coordinator of the Saints.
But a year before the 2026 NFL Draft, intentions are becoming clear. New Orleans will almost certainly have the No. 1 pick next year. They will want a franchise quarterback. The story would be absolutely perfect. It’s ultimately up to Manning whether he will take the moment, or risk waiting to see what the headwinds look like in 2027.
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