The 2025 MLB season is a month old. Spring has hardly even sprung. Most teams — sorry, Rockies fans — are still swathed in the optimistic glow of April baseball.
Yet off there in the cold, autumnal distance, free agency looms. And because the production of summer leads to the dollars of winter, we’re conducting the first of what will be monthly looks at the upcoming 2025-26 free-agent class.
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Let’s get to it.
Notes: Whenever you see a number, a slash and another number, that’s a reference to contract years and total earnings. For instance, the shorthand for Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million deal would be “11/330.” Ages listed below are for the 2026 season.
1. Kyle Tucker, Cubs OF, age 28
The top player in this free-agent class has done nothing but shine so far in 2025. After an offseason trade sent him from Houston to Chicago, Tucker has completely reenergized the Cubs’ offense. There has been extension chatter, but with a top-10 hitter this close to reaching free agency at such a young age, it’s unlikely that gets done.
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When the dust settles, Tucker is going to get a number that makes your mom text you multiple question marks. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent deal set a wonderful benchmark for Tucker and his children and his grandchildren and his great-grandchildren. He won’t reach Juan Soto’s $765 million, but there’s preposterous generational wealth incoming. Expect the average annual value to be between $40 and $45 million.
2. Alex Bregman (opt-out), Red Sox 3B, age 31
Last winter, Bregman settled for a short-term, three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox — though deferrals push the real value to somewhere around $31 million per year — instead of committing to a long-term pact that he saw as substandard. So far, that decision is looking peachy; Bregman entered play Friday with a .956 OPS, and that performance is backed up by the under-the-hood metrics.
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Bregman’s average exit velocities are up, and his chase rate is back to an elite level after a slight dip in 2024. Early returns on his typically superb defense are meh, but that should even out as the season progresses. If Bregman continues playing at an All-Star level, it’s a near guarantee that he’ll opt out and retest the market.
3. Pete Alonso (opt-out), Mets 1B, age 31
It was an acrimonious winter for Alonso and the Mets, whose game of free-agency chicken resulted in a reunion of convenience. In the end, Alonso traded long-term security for a huge AAV ($30 million) and an opt-out after 2025. It was a bet on himself, and so far, it looks like a sensational bet. Alonso has been the best hitter in baseball not named Aaron Judge, and his Mets have roared to MLB’s best record.
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Alonso has been whiffing less and hitting the ball harder than ever before. He ranks in the top 10 of most every offensive category, whether that’s outcomes or batted-ball metrics. Alonso caught a lot of flack for turning down a sturdy extension offer from the Mets a few summers ago, but this version of the Polar Bear could command a humongous deal next winter. Patience, for Pete, might well pay off.
4. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies DH, age 33
5. Marcell Ozuna, Braves DH, age 35
Here we have two of the game’s best defensively limited, one-dimensional, lineup-altering, NL East sluggers hitting the market at the same time. It’s somewhat surprising, given the Braves’ and Phillies’ propensity for extensions, that neither player has inked such a deal thus far. Both have gotten off to sensational starts, which also means an increase in their asking prices and the likelihood that they reach free agency.
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Schwarber ranks ahead of Ozuna because (1) he’s two years younger, (2) he has faked it in the outfield more recently, and (3) he’s considered one of the best clubhouse presences in baseball. Both are rated behind Alonso because Pete is even younger and plays a defensive position.
6. Dylan Cease (opt-out), Padres SP, age 29
7. Framber Valdez, Astros SP, age 31
8. Michael King, Padres SP, age 30
This top tier of pitchers in this free-agent class is a tick below last year’s. Cease, Valdez and King are all less enticing than the 2024-25 quartet of Blake Snell, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki. Still, this is a very talented trio of arms who could be ranked in any order.
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We have Cease atop the group predominantly because of his durability. No pitcher in baseball has made more starts since the beginning of 2020. Cease’s 2025 numbers so far are skewed by one blow-up outing, but everything about this heater/slider maestro looks the same as it ever was. Cease throws those two pitches a whopping 80% of the time, so it might be interesting to see if any teams with strong pitching development think they can squeeze more juice out of this talented arm.
Valdez is one of just three hurlers in baseball to receive Cy Young votes each of the past three seasons (Corbin Burnes and Logan Webb are the others). That consistency, coupled with a long playoff pedigree, should secure the sinkerballing lefty a lengthy deal. Through five starts, Valdez’s typically elite groundball rate has been merely good — just something to monitor.
King has the shortest track record of this trio, but that also means he has the most upside and the least mileage on his arm. The former Yankee has been a full-time starter only since the end of 2023 after a half-decade in the Bronx spent bouncing between bullpen and rotation. King has a nice four-pitch mix, but the real moneymaker is a darting changeup with outstanding horizontal movement.
9. Munetaka Murakami, Yakult Swallows 3B, age 25
As a 22-year-old in 2022, Murakami clubbed 56 home runs, breaking the domestic record in Nippon Professional Baseball and launching the thick-shouldered slugger onto stateside radars. His production has tailed off in the years since — from a 1.168 OPS in ‘22 to an .851 figure in ‘24 — but Murakami’s light-tower power and young age make him a near lock to test MLB free agency this winter. A provision in his contract with the Swallows guarantees that he’ll be “posted” this upcoming winter.
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Built like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with similar defensive abilities/limitations, Murakami will be the highest rated hitter to come to the U.S. since at least Seiya Suzuki. There’s something Soto-ish about his lower-half athleticism and opposite-field juice, though Murakami has much more swing-and-miss than the Mets superstar.
Unfortunately, Murakami’s 2025 has gotten off to an ominous start. He missed the first 15 games of the season due to a vaguely defined “upper-body ailment,” according to the Japan Times. Murakami returned on April 21 but was pinch hit for mid-plate-appearance. The Swallows removed him from their roster the following day, and there’s no return timetable as of yet.
There’s no question about Murakami’s ceiling, but if injuries continue to blot his jump year, teams will feel less comfortable shelling out for a relative unknown. If he comes back, looks healthy and rakes, he’ll jet up this list toward Schwarber and Ozuna just because this type of offensive potential at this age is so rare.
10. Zac Gallen, D-backs SP, age 29
11. Jack Flaherty (opt-out), Tigers SP, age 29
For a while, Gallen was looking like the best arm in this free-agent class, but his numbers and stuff have taken a step back over the past 24 months. Through five spotty starts, he’s carrying a 5.60 ERA. The bespectacled righty was never a flame-thrower, but his heater has dropped a full tick since his peak in 2022 and is now sitting at a well-below-average and somewhat concerning 92.9 mph. At his best, Gallen uses elite command of a deep four-pitch mix to baffle hitters and collect outs. But that’s trending in the wrong direction; Gallen’s walk rate in 2025 is nearly double what it was in 2023. He’s still a very good pitcher, but barring a turnaround, he might never again be an elite one.
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On the surface, it has been a great start for Flaherty, but the peripheral numbers look a tad hairier. He received less interest than he would’ve liked after a great bounce-back 2024, leading him back to the Tigers for 2/35 with an opt-out that increases to 2/45 if he makes 15 starts this season. A full season of success could catapult him into the Cease/Valdez/King bucket of arms, but, like all 30 MLB teams this past winter, I want to see Flaherty do it again before I commit. Still, there’s a lot to like here.
12. Cedric Mullins, Orioles CF, age 31
The longest tenured Oriole has started this season scorching hot, with six homers and a 1.049 OPS through his first 22 games. That’s not sustainable, but Mullins has shown real juice before, most notably when he went 30/30 in 2021. In fact, he leads all center fielders in bWAR since the start of 2021.
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Given that sustained run, it’s unfortunate yet unsurprising that Mullins, the last remaining survivor of Baltimore’s ugly rebuild, hasn’t been offered an extension. That’s just how this overly cautious Orioles front office does business.
That’ll likely be somebody else’s gain. There’s a real dearth of quality-hitting center fielders around the game right now, which should help Mullins’ market.
13. Josh Naylor, D-backs 1B, age 29
Among first basemen, only Pete Alonso has cranked more homers since the start of last season. The combination of raw juice, patience and a disdain for striking out makes this version of Naylor a well-rounded borderline All-Star. He has looked locked in since an offseason deal sent him from Cleveland to Arizona.
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Naylor doesn’t offer anything defensively or on the basepaths, adding risk to the profile that will surely limit the ceiling of his market. And even though he’s hitting free agency before his 30th birthday, the stout slugger rates below Ozuna and Schwarber because (1) he has a shorter track record and (2) he doesn’t hit the ball as hard.
But still, this guy rakes. He should command a three- or four-year deal with an AAV similar to what Christian Walker got from the Astros this past winter (3/60).
14. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays SS, age 28
Before a disastrous 2024 season, Bichette was tracking like a top-five free agent. From his first full season in 2020 through the end of 2023, he compiled the 20th-highest bWAR in baseball. And considering that he’ll hit free agency heading into his age-28 season, everything was lining up for Bichette to capture a massive payday.
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Then the bottom fell out. It was loud and inexplicable. So far in 2025, Bichette has looked better than his 2024 self but below what he’d been before that. He’s hitting the ball with authority but not in the air. If he can deliver an above-average offensive performance, he’ll skyrocket up this list and command a contract similar to the 7/182 that Willy Adames got last offseason.
15. Luis Arraez, Padres 1B, age 28
I have no idea how to evaluate MLB’s most extreme hitter as a free agent. Arraez is a contact savant with the sport’s slowest bat speed who never strikes out and rarely walks. He’s also sneaky slow and an awful defender.
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So much about projecting free agency is making comparisons among similar players, seeing what past contracts looked like and trying to synthesize it all together. But with Arraez, who looks to have avoided a long-term injury from his scary collision last week, there is no modern precedent. Some teams will value his skill set much higher than others, and who makes a run at Arraez might tell us some interesting things about what teams prioritize.
After one month of the 2025 season, Kyle Tucker leads the list of next winter’s top free agents.
(Stefan Milic/Yahoo Sports)
16. Tyler Mahle, Rangers SP, age 32
17. Zach Eflin, Orioles SP, age 32
18. Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays SP, age 37
Call this the Nick Pivetta trio: good starters whom you probably don’t want starting Game 1 of a playoff series but would be perfectly happy to start in Game 3.
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Injuries (Tommy John surgery, then a shoulder issue) limited Mahle to eight total outings across 2023 and ‘24. But he came out hot in 2025, pitching to a league-leading 0.68 ERA across his first five starts. Mahle probably isn’t Cy Young-contender good, but this dude was a perfectly capable rotation piece before he got hurt and looks to have regained that form.
Eflin is currently on the IL due to a minor lat issue that will sideline him until May, but the long, lean right-hander is the de facto ace of Baltimore’s undermanned pitching staff. At his best, Eflin thrives thanks to elite control and a legitimate six-pitch mix. With his hatred for walks and an uber-deep arsenal, Eflin feels like a solid bet to continue performing as he moves through his 30s.
Bassitt, who has made the eighth-most starts since the start of 2022, is thriving so far in 2025. He has gradually dropped his arm slot over the past few years, and this season that’s helping him get more depth on his trademark sinker. Through five starts, Bassitt has yet to surrender a home run, which explains his sparkling 1.88 ERA. Age is the obvious concern here, but we’re high on Bassitt for a few more years as a mid-rotation starter.
19. J.T. Realmuto, Phillies C, age 35
Multiple things can be true. Realmuto is no longer the player he once was, and he’s still a valuable piece that many teams would love to have. He’s not a middle-of-the-order bat anymore, but Realmuto was a top-10 offensive catcher in 2024, and while the surface-level stats are ugly in 2025, he has been the victim of poor batted-ball luck in the early going. The framing metrics are undeniably in decline, but Phillies pitchers rave about Realmuto’s game-calling ability and leadership skills (Zack Wheeler, for example, never shakes Realmuto off). And, remarkably for a 34-year-old, Realmuto is still one of the best throwing catchers in the game, a skill that has only grown in importance with stolen bases on the rise.
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Given the dearth of catching talent in Philadelphia’s farm system, a Realmuto reunion feels like the most likely outcome. His institutional knowledge with that particular pitching staff makes him more valuable in Philly than anywhere else. Still, expect other contenders with holes behind the dish (Boston, San Diego) to show interest.
20. Ryan Helsley, Cardinals RP, age 31
21. Devin Williams, Yankees RP, age 31
22. Robert Suarez (opt-out), Padres RP, age 35
This is a very, very strong reliever class, and this trio stands out above Luke Weaver, Raisel Iglesias and Kirby Yates due to a combo of age and fastball velocity. The sudden explosion of Helsley’s walk rate is something to monitor, but he’s still throwing gasoline and getting outs. He and Williams have both been top-five relievers in MLB since 2022.
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Williams’ slow start in the Bronx isn’t cause for panic yet; he has never been great in April, is still adjusting to a new environment and just had his first child. We’re buying a bounce-back. Suarez still hasn’t allowed a run and is leading baseball in saves, but age puts him behind the other two for now. Williams seems like the best bet to age well just because he relies the least on elite velocity, but one could make an argument for any of these guys.
23. Gleyber Torres, Tigers 2B, age 29
Didn’t we just do this? So far, Torres the Tiger looks like the good version of Torres the Yankee, except with a killer beard. He’s squaring up baseballs, hitting for average and playing horrible infield defense. One notable sign in the early going: Gleyber has sliced his strikeout rate year over year. If he keeps that up, he should get a better deal than the 1/15 he settled for with Detroit.
24. Griffin Canning, Mets SP, age 29
25. Ranger Suarez, Phillies SP, age 29
Through five starts in Queens, Canning has been a revelation. In 2024, the wiry righty led baseball in earned runs allowed. Now he’s performing like a playoff starter. The Mets’ pitching development apparatus deserves all the credit for identifying Canning as a worthwhile project and signing him over the winter for a paltry 1/4.25 deal. By throwing his slider more often and being more aggressive about getting ahead in counts, Canning has vaulted himself up this list and stands to earn a nice payday in free agency if he sustains anything close to the 3.12 ERA he has pitched to thus far.
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At this time last season, Suarez was pitching like a Cy Young candidate, with a 1.83 ERA through his first 16 starts. He ran out of gas down the stretch, as injuries and underperformance pushed him to a 6.04 ERA from July 1 on. In his only postseason start, he was predictably stellar, lowering his career playoff ERA to 1.43 across 10 appearances. A bout of back stiffness delayed Suarez’s season debut, but he’s expected to rejoin the Phillies over the next week. Given his young age and October track record, a strong 2025 could shoot him up this list.
The Next 25
26. Dustin May, Dodgers SP, age 27
27. Luke Weaver, Yankees RP, age 31
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28. Raisel Iglesias, Braves RP, age 35
29. Kirby Yates, Dodgers RP, age 38
30. Brandon Woodruff (mutual option), Brewers SP, age 33
31. Walker Buehler, Red Sox SP, age 30
32. German Marquez, Rockies SP, age 31
33. Erick Fedde, Cardinals SP, age 32
34. Mike Yastrzemski, Giants OF, age 34
35. Jorge Polanco, Mariners IF, age 31
36. Trent Grisham, Yankees CF, age 28
37. Austin Hays, Reds OF, age 29
38. Michael Conforto, Dodgers OF, age 32
39. Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees 1B, age 37
40. Eugenio Suarez, D-backs 3B, age 34
41. Ryan O’Hearn, Orioles 1B, age 31
42. Rhys Hoskins, Brewers 1B, age 32
43. Kenley Jansen, Angels RP, age 37
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44. Kyle Finnegan, Nationals RP, age 33
45. Willi Castro, Twins UTIL, age 28
46. Dylan Moore, Mariners UTIL, age 32
47. Nestor Cortes, Brewers SP, age 30
48. Jose Quintana, Brewers SP, age 37
49. Miles Mikolas, Cardinals SP, age 36
50. Jesse Winker, Mets DH, age 31
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