Last season proved the Big 12 is the most upwardly mobile power conference in college football. Arizona State, picked to finish last in the Big 12, won the league and reached the College Football Playoff. Furthermore, the Big 12 produced a new championship game participant for the seventh time in eight years.
We are keeping all that in mind as we take an early look at the Vegas win totals of every Big 12 team heading into the 2025 season. Granted, things can change during spring practice, and the post-spring transfer portal can still bring surprises. However, the most impactful players are already on campus.
Thanks to the chaos in the first year of the 16-team Big 12, our picks were nearly disastrous last season. We went 3-12-1 on over/under picks, notably whiffing on first-place Arizona State (under 4.5) and last-place Oklahoma State (over 8). That’s a reminder to Big 12 fans: This might be your year.
Here’s our predictions for Big 12 teams against their Vegas win totals heading into 2025. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Over/under 5.5 wins
Wins: Hawaii, Weber State, Oklahoma State
Losses: Kansas State, at Iowa State, BYU, at Houston, at Colorado, Kansas, at Cincinnati, Baylor, at Arizona State
Analysis: The Wildcats are completely retooling in Brent Brennan’s second year after losing the vast majority of playmakers, including star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Arizona lost seven of its last eight games and three of its last four by more than three touchdowns. Getting the majority of winnable games on the road makes matters even worse. Pick: Under 5.5 (-122)
Arizona State
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: NAU, at Mississippi State, Texas State, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, West Virginia, at Colorado, Arizona
Losses: at Baylor, at Utah, at Iowa State
Analysis: In many ways, Arizona State’s emergence as a CFP team came faster than expected. The Sun Devils went from picked last place in the Big 12 to winning the league, the first time that’s happened since the conference was founded in 1996. Thanks to the quickened timeframe, most of the roster is back in 2025, including quarterback Sam Leavitt. ASU won’t necessarily get all the same bounces this year, but nine wins is well within reach. Pick: Over 8.5 (-144)
Baylor
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: Auburn, at SMU, Samford, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, at Cincinnati, UCF, Utah, at Arizona, Houston
Losses: Kansas State, at TCU
Analysis: The Bears ended the year on a six-game winning streak and should ride into 2025 as a preseason Big 12 favorite. Despite the encouraging signs, Baylor was not one one of the three Big 12 teams with an 8.5-win total. Baylor faces pivotal nonconference matchups early against Auburn and SMU that could ultimately swing its CFP case. Survive the early tests and the Bears are home free with three home games in the decisive final month. Pick: Over 7.5 (+110)
BYU
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: Portland State, Stanford, at East Carolina, at Colorado, West Virginia, at Arizona, Utah, TCU, at Cincinnati, UCF
Losses: at Iowa State, at Texas Tech
Analysis: The Cougars were the most underrated team in college football in 2024, and it seems that trend will continue into 2025. Despite coming off an 11-win season and returning the vast majority of production on both sides of the ball, BYU only needs eight wins to clear the over. The Cougars could be 6-0 heading into a home rivalry game against Utah and should be in the thick of the Big 12 title race late in the year. Pick: Over 7.5 (-158)
UCF
Over/under 6.5 wins
Wins: Jacksonville State, North Carolina A&T, West Virginia, Houston, Oklahoma State
Losses: North Carolina, at Kansas State, Kansas, at Cincinnati, at Baylor, at Texas Tech, at BYU
Analysis: Scott Frost returns to take over a Knights squad that missed a bowl game for the first time since 2015 — ironically the season preceding his last tenure with the program. While he jump-started the Knights from 0-12 to 6-7 in the AAC the first time around, the Big 12 presents a different challenge. Not to mention, the Knights could be starting upwards of 15 transfers in his first year. The rest of the league is just too experienced. Pick: Under 6.5 (-144)
Cincinnati
Over/under 6.5 wins
Wins: Bowling Green, Northwestern State, UCF, Arizona
Losses: Nebraska, at Kansas, Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, Baylor, at Utah, BYU, at TCU
Analysis: The Bearcats improved from three to five wins last season but lost their final five games to miss a bowl game. The early schedule does them no favors as Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa State are all potential losses in the first five games. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby inspires some optimism, but the Bearcats must improve on defense to have any chance of even replicating last season’s win total. Pick: Under 6.5 (-134)
Deion Sanders is right: College football needs intersquad scrimmages in the spring
Will Backus
Colorado
Over/under 6.5 wins
Wins: Georgia Tech, Delaware, at Houston, Wyoming, Iowa State, Arizona
Losses: BYU, at TCU, at Utah, at West Virginia, Arizona State, at Kansas State
Analysis: The second phase of the Coach Prime experiment gets underway in 2025. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter are gone to the NFL. Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and star freshman Julian Lewis will give the Buffs some juice at quarterback, but CU will likely have to ride its defense to contention. Colorado will get back to bowl eligibility, but there’s just too much turnover across the roster without the obvious star skill talent to replace it. Pick: Under 6.5 (+104)
Houston
Over/under 5.5 wins
Wins: Stephen F. Austin, at Rice, at Oregon State, Arizona, West Virginia, TCU
Losses: Colorado, Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, at Arizona State, at UCF, Baylor
Analysis: The Cougars shook off a slow nonconference showing to win three Big 12 games in Willie Fritz’s first year. They also put scares into Baylor, Oklahoma and BYU. With three potential out-of-league wins this year and the arrival of former five-star quarterback Conner Weigman, Houston has a chance to get back to bowl eligibility. A road trip to Oregon State in Week 4 will set the tone. Pick: Over 5.5 (-170)
Iowa State
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: South Dakota, Iowa, at Arkansas State, Arizona, at Cincinnati, BYU, Arizona State, Kansas
Losses: Kansas State, at Colorado, at TCU, at Oklahoma State
Analysis: The Cyclones are fresh off the best season in school history, hitting 11 wins and reaching the Big 12 Championship Game. With star wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel off to the NFL, maintaining that level of success will be difficult. A game against rival Kansas State in Ireland will define the Big 12 title race, but handling business on the road against Colorado, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati will decide the over/under. Pick: Over 7.5 (+104)
Kansas
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: Fresno State, Wagner, at Missouri, West Virginia, Cincinnati, at UCF, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, at Arizona
Losses: at Texas Tech, at Iowa State, Utah
Analysis: KU’s win total is higher than I expected after missing a bowl game last season, but Vegas is onto something. The Jayhawks lose much of their offensive skill talent, but the return of quarterback Jalon Daniels and a number of key linemen will keep them afloat. Kansas has among the highest number of 50/50 games, headlined by a major battle against reloading rival Missouri in nonconference play. A win would be a program-changing moment. Pick: Over 7.5 (-144)
Kansas State
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: Iowa State, North Dakota, Army, at Arizona, UCF, at Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, Colorado
Losses: at Kansas, at Utah
Analysis: The Wildcats are a perennial Big 12 contender, and the program should return to form after an inconsistent first year for quarterback Avery Johnson. To help, KSU brought in plenty of receiver help next to Jayce Brown, including Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford. The defense has been consistent under Chris Klieman. Like ISU, KSU’s season hinges on the early season matchup in Ireland. We’re leaning ‘Cats. Pick: Over 8.5 (+128)
Oklahoma State
Over/under 5.5 wins
Wins: UTM, Tulsa, Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State
Losses: at Oregon, Baylor, at Arizona, at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Kansas State, at UCF
Analysis: The old adage says that when Mike Gundy’s teams have no expectations, they overperform, but things have never looked more bleak under Gundy in Stillwater. OSU got blanked in conference play and then lost nearly every impact player on both sides of the ball. Replacing both coordinators is tough enough, but right now it’s unclear what players on OSU’s roster can even emerge as above average Big 12 starters. Pick: Under 5.5 (-188)
TCU
Over/under 6.5 wins
Wins: at North Carolina, Abilene Christian, SMU, Colorado, Baylor, at West Virginia, Iowa State, Cincinnati
Losses: at Arizona State, at Kansas State, at BYU, at Houston
Analysis: The Horned Frogs had a strange season, reaching an impressive nine wins but losing to rivals Baylor and SMU. With quarterback Josh Hoover and an improving defense, the Horned Frogs are poised to take another step. A nonconference slate featuring North Carolina and SMU will set the tone. Pick: Over 6.5 (-12)
Texas Tech
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: UAPB, Kent State, Oregon State, at Utah, at Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State, BYU, UCF, at West Virginia
Losses: at Arizona State, at Kansas State
Analysis: Few teams have invested more into the 2025 season than Texas Tech, which reeled in a top-three transfer class with several impact players in the trenches. The Red Raiders have three straight winning conference records for the first time since Spike Dykes in 1997 but have yet to break through on the national stage. Texas Tech’s Big 12 schedule features only three games against opponents that finished 2024 with a winning record. Pick: Over 8.5 (+134)
Armed with ambition, resources and Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech forges ahead well-equipped to thrive in new era
Dennis Dodd
Utah
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: at UCLA, Cal Poly, at Wyoming, at West Virginia, Arizona State, Colorado, Cincinnati, Kansas State
Losses: Texas Tech, at BYU, at Baylor, at Kansas
Analysis: The Utes are in a fascinating spot heading into 2025. They have been picked to win their league in back-to-back seasons but responded with a combined 13-12 record. Coach Kyle Whittingham took a swing by importing QB/OC combo Devon Dampier and Jason Beck from New Mexico. If Beck can replicate his success, Utah has the ingredients for a quick turnaround with marquee home games against ASU and Kansas State. Pick: Over 7.5 (+118)
West Virginia
Over/under 5.5 wins
Analysis: The Mountaineers are incredibly hard to project heading into Rich Rodriguez’s first season back with the program. Rodriguez has won at nearly every stop, but he inherits an incomplete roster after a third losing season in four years cost Neal Brown his job. A tough schedule complicates the picture further as the home slate includes Big 12 contenders Utah, TCU and Texas Tech. Pick: Under 5.5 (-132)
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