There is no debate that Statcast has forever changed how we view Major League Baseball. The treasure trove of information provided by Statcast data has given fans and analysts a better understanding of the true skills of each player, and at this point, there is no going back. The Expected Stats portion of Statcast data can be especially useful for fantasy baseball managers.
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To be clear, Expected Stats are not designed to be predictive. For example, a hitter who has produced a .250 expected batting average is not necessarily predicted to hit .250 from this point forward. However, it does mean that the player has earned a .250 average up to this point, based on data such as launch angle and exit velocity.
Wise fantasy managers can use Expected Stats to assess the players who have been especially lucky or unlucky over a certain time period. And when looking back at data from the previous season, Expected Stats can offer some clues as to which players may have been judged too harshly or favorably by the fantasy community. Here are some Expected Stats from 2024 that are worth knowing before starting your 2025 draft.
José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians (Yahoo ADP: 5.0)
Feeling good about taking Ramírez at pick No. 4? Read this first.
The slugger’s xBA was just .259 last year, which was 20 points below his actual mark. And his xSLG (.453) was 0.084 below his SLG, which was the third-largest gap of any player with at least 300 plate appearances. Ramírez is a great player, but at this time last year, he was valued as someone who belonged near the beginning of Round 2. Throughout his career, Ramirez has often outperformed his xSLG but has not consistently outperformed his xBA, which offers clues for 2025 that his power numbers may remain stronger than his batting average.
Juan Soto, New York Mets (Yahoo ADP: 7.8)
There is a common misperception that Yankee Stadium helped Soto to ride into free agency on the heels of a memorable season. The reality couldn’t be further in the opposite direction. First, Soto performed better on the road (1.017 OPS) than at home (.960 OPS). And second, his expected stats show that he could have fared even better. The patient slugger’s .316 xBA was the second-best in baseball and 28 points higher than his actual mark. His .646 xSLG placed third, and he had the largest gap (0.077) of any player.
After reviewing his Statcast data, I’m excited to select Soto in the middle of Round 1.
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (Yahoo ADP: 53.1)
There were eight players who posted an xwOBA of .400 or better last year. Seven of those players are being selected among the top 20 picks in Yahoo ADP. The other player is Ozuna. Over the past two seasons, Ozuna has been bested in all three of homers, RBI and batting average by only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. And although he is a UTIL-only player in some formats, Ozuna has outfield eligibility in Yahoo leagues. Sure, he’s 34 years old, but Ozuna should be selected at least one round earlier.
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves (Yahoo ADP: 53.4)
Although popular opinion is that Harris really struggled last year, it’s worth noting that his skills were mostly unchanged and he massively underperformed his expected stats, which included a .284 xBA and a .461 xSLG. He should be part of a resurgent lineup that includes many potential bounce-back players. I could justify drafting Harris at least 15 picks earlier than his current Yahoo ADP.
Ezequiel Tovar, Colarado Rockies (Yahoo ADP: 139.2)
On the surface, Tovar looks like a talented young hitter who is rapidly rising. His homer total jumped last year by 11, and playing half his games at Coors Field should protect his floor. Still, there are underlying reasons for concern. The 23-year-old logged a lowly .233 xBA and had a massive gap between his .469 SLG and his .401 xSLG. Tovar rarely steals bases, which means that he would be a three-category contributor if his batting average regresses this year. His ADP is fair, but he’s not a value pick at that point in the draft.
Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies (Yahoo ADP: 210.1)
At first glance, Toglia is an all-or-nothing power hitter who could provide 25 homers but will sink a fantasy team’s batting average. However, his xBA last year was a respectable .244, and his .503 xSLG placed 20th among players with at least 300 plate appearances. Playing half his games at Coors Field gives Toglia a nice floor. I have him ranked ahead of several first basemen who have an earlier Yahoo ADP.
Tyler Fitzgerald, San Francisco Giants (Yahoo ADP: 238.6)
On the surface, Fitzgerald enjoyed a solid rookie season by hitting .280 with a .497 SLG and a .357 wOBA. But his expected stats tell a much different story. Fitzgerald has the largest gap of any player with at least 300 plate appearances from his actual marks to his xBA (.227) and his xwOBA (.292). Managers need to know that there is an excellent chance that Fitzgerlad will lose his regular role at some point this season.
Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
Bailey will go undrafted in standard leagues but is someone to keep speculating on in two-catcher formats. The 25-year-old may be baseball’s best defensive catcher, which will lead to a heavy workload as long as he stays healthy. And his .258 xBA and .398 xSLG are solid marks for someone at his premium position. Bailey was hitting .283 with a .784 OPS at the All-Star break before fading badly. He could be more consistent this year.
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