Spring is in the air and it’s that time of year again: the best part of the season for hockey fans. The first round of the NHL playoffs is one of the top parts of the whole calendar with eight series all simultaneously providing the highs and lows of playoff hockey.
Let’s take a stab at the first round, but given the preseason projections here and everywhere, maybe this is the year to expect the unexpected.
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Buffalo Sabres (Atlantic 1) vs. Boston Bruins (Wild Card 1)
It still is surreal that the Sabres are a first place team, emphatically ending a 16-year playoff drought. Their reward for that great season seems like a cruel joke to draw a 100-point Boston Bruins team in the first round. The Bruins’ soft road record (16-16-9) looms large in what undoubtedly will be a beyond fired up, passionate Sabres crowd finally getting a chance to cheer on playoff hockey after all these years. Usually atmospheres and intangibles don’t make a huge difference, but sometimes they do (the mind turns to the rabid Pirates crowd hosting a playoff game as a suitable comparable). Having the home ice advantage could and should be a factor within this series in Buffalo’s benefit, for whatever it ends up being worth.
In the end, I don’t think Boston (14th in the NHL with 3.01 goals/game allowed) is strong enough defensively to slow Buffalo down. The Sabres wagon rolls into the next round, to the delight of a delirious crowd.
Prediction: Sabres in 6
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Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic 2) vs. Montreal Canadiens (Atlantic 3)
Two 106-point teams square off in the first round that could be about a coin flip to find an edge. Tampa profiles as a sort of old guard with several pieces hanging around from their 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup wins. Montreal is the other side of the coin with many great young players hungry to take the next step. Both teams have a ton of firepower, the Nikita Kucherov led Lightning are 4th in the NHL with 3.51 goals per game, the Canadiens with 50-goal man Cole Caufield aren’t far behind in 7th with 3.40 goals/game themselves.
On one hand, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Tampa ended up being the Eastern Conference champions when the smoke clears. On the other hand, I can’t shake that since March 8th Jakub Dobes has a 9-4-0 record with a 2.22 GAA and .924 save% while Andrei Vasilevskiy isn’t exactly playing great lately (12-8-1 record, .899 save% since the Olympic break). I think Montreal has enough speed and skill to make it more competitive than the lopsided betting line would suggest (was seeing it at -250 for Tampa and +205 for Montreal earlier in the week). With much hesitancy and reluctance, I’m smelling an upset brewing.
Prediction: Montreal in 7
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Carolina Hurricanes (Metropolitan 1) vs. Ottawa Senators (Wild Card 2)
This matchup represents a fantastic styles clash. Ottawa was the No. 1 team in the NHL in expected goals against but suffered from some of the worst goaltending in the league. That’s perhaps been rectified somewhat by the stability of Linus Ullmark (with an above average .908 save% in his last 14 games) but still is going to be a shaky proposition until proven otherwise. Their opponent, Carolina, remains the analytic darlings for second in xGoals for and xGoals Share, but struggles at finishing chances (29th, per Hockeystats.com). Who wins the battle between Carolina’s strong generation/weak finishing and Ottawa’s great suppression/bad goaltending will make for some incredible theatre.
Carolina is 6-0 in first rounds under coach Rod Brind’Amour, besides the August COVID bubble playoff of 2020. I don’t see that streak coming to an end this spring, though I really do like this potential matchup for Ottawa. There’s a way if things break differently that they could have a real chance, but in the end I’m going to call it as a series short in games which belies how tight most of the games will be.
Prediction: Carolina in 5
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Pittsburgh Penguins (Metropolitan 2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (Metropolitan 3)
Two surprise playoff teams from Pennsylvania matchup in what never fails to live up to the hype. We’ve talked a ton about this so to keep it short and sweet, I think the Penguins are better and/or deeper at every place on the ice, also aided by the fact that Pittsburgh is good in the first period (outscoring opponents 93-68 this season) and the Flyers are not (getting outscored 65-68). The Pens are used to being in the lead, having lead the third most minutes in the whole league. The Flyers are used to chasing games, and the playoffs are no time to consistently dig holes. Put yourself in enough holes and someone is bound to bury you, and let’s face it, Sidney Crosby always buries the Flyers as it is. It won’t be a smooth road, Penguins/Flyers is naturally going to have it’s twists and turns along the way but in the end the Pens continue onto the next round.
Prediction: Pittsburgh in 6
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