2026 NFL mock draft: Surprises in top 10 of latest first-round projection

With exactly one month until the 2026 NFL Draft begins, it’s time to explore how the first round could serve up a few twists.

There’s little mystery at the top of the order, with the Las Vegas Raiders expected to kick things off in Pittsburgh by making Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza the first of the league’s 257 picks announced over three days. And while there’s been an emerging consensus for several other selections in the top 10, all it takes is one surprise move to create a significant departure from the prevailing wisdom.

Here’s USA TODAY Sports’ latest NFL mock draft projection for the first round:

2026 NFL mock draft

1. Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

The last pit stop on Mendoza’s march to the No. 1 pick is Indiana’s pro day on April 1. Fittingly, you’d have to be a fool to put much stock in what the Heisman Trophy winner does that day given what he demonstrated throughout the Hoosiers’ national title run. But it’ll at least make for some pre-draft fodder and give Raiders fans another glimpse at their future signal-caller.

2. New York Jets – Arvell Reese, LB/DE, Ohio State

Much of Darren Mougey and Aaron Glenn’s free agency focus seemed to be on instituting a ground floor for the defense, with at least six new starters ushered in via veteran acquisitions. Now, it’s time to add someone who can actually move the needle for this unit. Reese remains a project as a full-time pass rusher, yet he’s a fully worthwhile one given the double-digit sack potential.

3. Arizona Cardinals – David Bailey, OLB/DE, Texas Tech

It’s tempting to look at Arizona’s unresolved issue at right tackle and project a solution here. But the Cardinals made clear in free agency that they’re not rushing a return to legitimacy, so maximizing long-term value has to be the priority here. Taking Bailey might be a solid step toward that goal, as he’d give the defense another cornerstone while the offense waits to get its build off the ground.

4. Tennessee Titans – Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

A true off-ball linebacker hasn’t landed this high in the draft since Aaron Curry went No. 4 overall to the Seattle Seahawks in 2009. That’s company that neither the Titans nor Styles would want to keep, but there’s still reason for the team to take the plunge here, especially with the top two pass rushers already claimed. New coach Robert Saleh knows what a hyperathletic and ultra-savvy linebacker can unlock for a defense after his time with Fred Warner in San Francisco. While that’s a lofty comparison for an incoming rookie, Styles does size up as a singular prospect at his position, and one capable of being a true difference-maker for a defense.

5. New York Giants – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Cue the Saquon Barkley jokes. The scrutiny on Joe Schoen would only intensify if the team bets big on a game-changing back two years after watching one leave, but it’s a new day for Big Blue under John Harbaugh. With the offense on the upswing, the Giants could actually be poised to take advantage of the full scope of Love’s explosive talent.

6. Cleveland Browns – Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

With deficiencies running rampant throughout the roster, the Browns aren’t in a place to force picks based on need. But it would hardly be a surprise if a team that paid a serious premium throughout March to reconfigure its offensive line looked to wrap up the effort in April with a left tackle. Though he’s still finding his footing – often quite literally – after just one year as a full-time starter, Freeling offers the frame and athleticism that tend to entice teams into rolling the dice on promising pass protectors.

7. Washington Commanders – Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

After indulging in another spending spree, Washington no longer appears to be the lock they once were to take a defensive player here, with Jeremiyah Love and Carnell Tate both standing out as potential considerations. But Adam Peters could import Downs to equip new coordinator Daronte Jones with a highly versatile tone-setter and a final piece of the offseason overhaul.

8. New Orleans Saints – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

No longer weighed down by having to balance their books, the Saints got aggressive in fortifying their offense with running back Travis Etienne Jr. and offensive guard David Edwards. That effort won’t be complete, however, until the team finds another true weapon to put alongside Chris Olave. Tate can make life significantly easier for second-year signal-caller Tyler Shough with his reliable route-running and knack for coming down with contested catches.

9. Kansas City Chiefs – Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)

Kansas City’s concerted effort to return to the contender ranks has entailed a lot of moves that helped the franchise reach the summit in the first place. But the Chiefs might need to break from their formula to get their pass rush right. Though Bain doesn’t resemble the type of rangy edge presence Steve Spagnuolo and Brett Veach have typically gravitated toward, his extensive track record of creating havoc suggests he could be a force capable of elevating an uneven front four.

10. Cincinnati Bengals – Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

Downs has long been my choice for Cincinnati, and he would be a no-brainer for a defense that still might lack someone to take charge. But could the Bengals simply look to another safety if their first choice is already gone? While Thieneman might seem like a stretch here to many, deterring deep shots with a rangy and instinctive coverage ace would go a long way toward curing several of this unit’s most pressing ills.

11. Miami Dolphins – Francis Mauigoa, OT/G, Miami (Fla.)

Dealing away Jaylen Waddle drove home that the Dolphins are probably working on an even more extended timeline than anyone was anticipating after the first wave of free agency. And any organization taking the long view likely will find itself drawn to building along the lines. Mauigoa could help Miami’s offense flip from finesse-focused to forceful with his punishing blows to all comers.

12. Dallas Cowboys – Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Delane is the good kind of boring: so reliable and consistent in coverage that the unanimous All-American discouraged anyone from testing him. That’s the kind of profile that could transform a Dallas defense that was the wrong kind of captivating last season.

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons) – Makai Lemon, WR, USC

Much of the conversation surrounding the Rams’ offseason has centered on the team tilting its efforts toward another title push for Matthew Stafford. Here, however, that notion isn’t at odds with serving the roster’s long-term interests. Lemon would give the passing attack a needed tertiary option as well as an eventual replacement for Davante Adams as a high-powered No. 2 threat behind Puka Nacua.

14. Baltimore Ravens – Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State

After the failed Maxx Crosby trade, the Ravens have tried to turn the noise down on a surprisingly volatile offseason. Baltimore can boost the effort to settle down by snagging Ioane, a major source of stability on the interior.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)

An edge rusher who will be 25 when selected might not seem like top-15 material to many teams. But the Buccaneers surely will appreciate Mesidor’s refined approach to pass rushing as well as the immediate contributions he can make to a team trying to claw its way back to the top of the NFC South.

16. Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

To position the quarterback of the future for sustained success and safeguard against Geno Smith going off the rails again, the Jets need to take a long look at this year’s receiver class with their second Day 1 selection. With Tyson in the fold, Gang Green’s aerial attack would no longer be solely the Garrett Wilson show.

17. Detroit Lions – Spencer Fano, OT/G, Utah

A rather dire situation up front for Detroit doesn’t seem likely to be answered other than with a first-round draft pick. The most straightforward option for the Lions might be to move Penei Sewell to the left side to cover for the Taylor Decker divorce and then grab the best right tackle available. In this scenario, there’s little question that would be Fano, an agile blocker built to counter the modern NFL pass rusher.

18. Minnesota Vikings – Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

A spotty track record of drafting cornerbacks has made Minnesota’s secondary something for Brian Flores to overcome rather than unleash. McCoy has plenty to prove at his March 31 pro day after missing all of last season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament and then sitting out combine workouts, but he could solidify the Vikings’ outlook on the exterior and create additional opportunities for Flores to vex the division’s high-powered offenses.

19. Carolina Panthers – Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

In scoring a bargain with left tackle Rasheed Walker’s one-year deal, the Panthers answered their most glaring pre-draft question. With that matter resolved, Carolina can get creative with Sadiq, who can open up the offense as a seam threat while also doing plenty of heavy lifting for Bryce Young, both as a run-after-catch threat and a blocker in the run game.

20. Dallas Cowboys – CJ Allen, LB, Georgia

The Cowboys would almost certainly be going against the grain with this selection. Safe to say, however, that Jerry Jones probably doesn’t care about breaking from consensus on evaluations and positional value. Allen would fill a fairly sizable void at the second level for Dallas while also giving Jones the kind of savvy run-stopper for which the Cowboys owner has a distinct affinity.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kadyn Proctor, OT/G, Alabama

Hitting holes at wide receiver (Michael Pittman Jr.) and cornerback (Jamel Dean) afforded Pittsburgh enviable flexibility entering the draft. Proctor could come aboard as a punishing presence as a Day 1 starter at guard while giving the team an additional option at tackle down the line.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – T.J. Parker, DE/OLB, Clemson

Even with Khalil Mack back for another season, it’s time to plan for a future that won’t include the 35-year-old. Parker would keep the Bolts’ pass rush well stocked after Odafe Oweh’s departure and give Jim Harbaugh a refined eventual replacement for Mack.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn

Howie Roseman is never one to box himself in and chase a positional shortcoming during the draft, but Philadelphia’s failed efforts to re-sign Jaelan Phillips and land Trey Hendrickson spoke volumes about the team’s priorities. While the Eagles also could look to their offensive line here, Faulk might prove massively enticing if he makes it this far without hearing his name called.

24. Cleveland Browns – Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

Another year of quarterback purgatory only heightens the need for Cleveland to find offensive pieces who can create for themselves. Though Cooper isn’t the biggest target at 6-0 and 199 pounds, he is prolific after the catch and sets himself apart from the Browns’ in-house options with his rugged style.

25. Chicago Bears – Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

Ryan Poles has already demonstrated that he’s willing to pay a premium for playmaking ability at safety after handing Coby Bryant a three-year, $40 million deal. He can complete his team’s transformation at the position by nabbing McNeil-Warren, an authoritative run stopper who has considerable upside in matching up against the NFC North’s imposing tight ends.

26. Buffalo Bills – Cashius Howell, OLB, Texas A&M

Bradley Chubb is at best a Band-Aid for an edge rush lacking much of anything outside of Greg Rousseau. Buffalo might have to live with some early inconsistencies from him, but Howell’s burst and bend could come in extremely handy for a defense that doesn’t look entirely suited to new coordinator Jim Leonhard’s scheme.

27. San Francisco 49ers – Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

Regardless of how the bubbling Trent Williams drama resolves, San Francisco has to enact some sort of succession plan for protecting Brock Purdy’s blind side. Having Lomu face the NFC West’s various bullies on the edge might make for a rough introduction to the NFL, but a patient approach to his development could produce a talented pass protector.

28. Houston Texans – Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

Reconfiguring the offensive line has been the running theme of Houston’s offseason, with right tackle Braden Smith and left guard Wyatt Miller arriving to solidify the starting lineup. The effort might not stop there, however, with Blake Miller – who started 54 games at Clemson – providing additional support behind Smith, who has missed at least four games in four of the last five seasons.

29. Chiefs (from Rams) – Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

With Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson off to Los Angeles, the Chiefs are again relying on their long-established track record of developing young corners, with 2025 third-rounder Nohl Williams in line for a starting spot. By adding Hood, however, Kansas City can improve its hopes of avoiding costly breakdowns in the secondary.

30. Dolphins (from Denver Broncos) – Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

If the Dolphins are to get a fair read on new quarterback Malik Willis, they surely need to afford him some additional weaponry in the wake of the Waddle trade. The 6-4, 212-pound Boston would add a distinct and sorely lacking flavor as a jump-ball winner to contrast an otherwise undersized receiving corps.

31. New England Patriots – Zion Young, DE/OLB, Missouri

While rattling off his desired traits in an edge rusher at the combine, Mike Vrabel first mentioned “violence.” That augurs well for Young, a 6-6, 262-pound force who relishes displacing opponents in every phase of the game.

32. Seattle Seahawks – Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

This spot looks ripe for a trade, especially with the Seahawks only having four picks and likely needing to use one on a potential lead back. But if Seattle stays put, the defending champs could be drawn to replenishing a secondary that kept Josh Jobe but lost Riq Woolen. With his comfort operating in a variety of looks, Terrell would further Mike Macdonald’s efforts to remain flexible on the back end.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2026 NFL mock draft: Top-10 surprises in latest first-round projection

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