2026 NBA Championship Odds: Tatum Powers Celtics Surge

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So much for a gap year.

Written off by many as an afterthought when the season began, the re-tooled Boston Celtics have moved into second place in the Eastern Conference and the second spot on the NBA Championship odds board as the season enters the stretch drive.

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The recent surge in confidence among bettors can be attributed to the sudden – and unexpected – return of All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum, whose presence lifts the Celtics to the status of genuine title contender.

Let’s break down the latest odds as the league races towards the playoffs.

🏆 2026 NBA Championship odds

Odds courtesy of bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

The Thunder’s odds have moved from +230 before the season began to +135 today. Rounding out the Top 5 are the Boston Celtics (+600), Denver Nuggets (+650), San Antonio Spurs (+800), and Cleveland Cavaliers (+1100).

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NBA Championship odds movement

Few pundits gave the Celtics much of a shot during the offseason. After all, Jayson Tatum was expected to miss the entire campaign as he recovered from an Achilles tear and the team had just bid adieu to Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford, three critical contributors to their last championship run. The rest of the roster hardly inspired confidence in bettors, resulting in distant +2000 title odds entering the season.

All the Celtics have done since is win. The club is just 2.5 games out of first place in the Eastern Conference and could claim the crown with the newly returned Tatum, who is averaging 17.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in his first two games back, both Celtics wins. His reemergence has Boston flying high and resulted in the team moving from +1000 to +600 over the past week.

The Celtics’ big jump has resulted in lesser odds for the Nuggets, who have moved from +550 to +650, and the Spurs, who dropped from +750 to +800.

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📈 2026 NBA Finals odds over time

Here’s a visual representation of how the NBA championship has odds evolved since the offseason.

🔮 NBA Championship prediction

Oklahoma City has the cleanest runway to be the best team in 2026: an MVP-caliber engine in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entering the heart of his prime, a two-way star wing in Jalen Williams, and a 7-footer in Chet Holmgren whose blend of rim protection, spacing, and feel supercharges modern schemes. That trio already drives elite half-court efficiency and a top-tier defense, and it’s backed by organizational continuity that reliably turns role players into playoff-useful pieces. Holmgren’s strength and timing appear to be fully NBA-hardened, unlocking more switching and fewer help-and-recover compromises, while SGA’s mid-range and foul-drawing remain matchup-proof in May and June.

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Depth and optionality push the Thunder over the top. They can win big or small, play five-out without sacrificing rim protection, and toggle between pressure defense and conservative coverages depending on opponent. Crucially, they still have surplus picks and cap flexibility to plug the inevitable holes that show up in a long postseason, whether that’s a second unit scorer, another stretch big, or a specialist wing.

So, why did I decide to sprinkle half a unit on the Spurs in late February? Health. San Antonio is clicking at just the right time while Oklahoma City deals with injuries to SGA, Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell. That’s a lot of star power riding the pine. Consider San Antonio my insurance policy.

💰 Sportsbook betting splits and insights

Highest ticket percentage
•    Nuggets 8.8%
•    Thunder 8.7%
•    Mavericks 8.2%
 
Highest handle percentage
•    Thunder 17.9%
•    Mavericks 16.3%
•    Lakers 13.3%
 
Biggest liability
•    Mavericks 
•    Lakers
•    Warriors

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Data courtesy of BetMGM.

2026 NBA Championship opening odds

NBA Championship trends

• Since the Warriors’ 2018 repeat, the NBA has seen seven different champions in seven years. This is the longest such streak since the late 1970s.

• 22 of the last 25 champions ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive Rating during the regular season.

• 23 of the last 25 champions were Top 5 in either Offensive or Defensive efficiency.

• Since 2019, nearly every champion has been led by a non-U.S. superstar or a team built on international depth.

🏀 NBA Finals winners since 2000

Odds courtesy of Sports Odds History.

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