If you’re a fan of college football, the Week 5 schedule is what dreams are made of. Four top 25 matchups are set to unfold on Saturday, including a Big Ten battle featuring No. 3 Penn State hosting No. 6 Oregon at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The Ducks are 8-0 in their last eight games on the road, while the Nittany Lions are 10-2 in their previous 12 conference games. According to the latest Week 5 college football odds, the Nittany Lions are favored by 3.5 points at home, while the over/under for total points scored is 52.5. SportsLine’s model is backing Oregon, which is 18-1 in its last 19 games overall, to cover the spread in 54% of simulations at Penn State.
The model is also backing Notre Dame (-5.5) to cover the spread at Arkansas, while the Over (59.5) hits 66% of the time in USC vs. Illinois. Before locking in your Week 5 college football picks, be sure to check out the top college football betting picks from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and is a profitable 35-22 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns, and new users can also target the BetMGM bonus code, which offers up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
Week 5 college football best bets for Saturday, Sept. 27 (odds subject to change):
- Oregon (+3.5) vs. Penn State (-120)
- Notre Dame (-5.5) vs. Arkansas (-104)
- Over 59.5 points in USC vs. Illinois (-110)
Combining the model’s three picks into a Week 5 college football parlay would result in a payout of +587 (risk $100 to win $587). Bet it now at FanDuel Sportsbook:
Oregon +3.5 vs. Penn State
Oregon boasts one of the nation’s top-ranked offenses, entering Saturday’s showdown averaging 50.8 points per game. However, the Ducks are terrific on the defensive side of the ball as well, holding opponents to just 9.25 points per contest. Penn State, meanwhile, is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games and just 2-4 ATS in its previous six games when playing as the favorite. The model is projecting Oregon to cover the spread in 54% of simulations, providing clear value on the spread.
Notre Dame -5.5 vs. Arkansas
Arkansas is coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses, most recently suffering a 32-31 setback against Memphis after being up 28-10 in the second quarter. Notre Dame picked up its first win of the season by securing a 56-30 victory against Purdue. After dropping their first two games of the season, the Fighting Irish will need to win convincingly from here on out if they want a chance at making the College Football Playoff. SportsLine’s model is backing Notre Dame to cover the spread in 63% of simulations, targeting the Fighting Irish as one of its top Week 5 college football picks.
Over 59.5 points in USC vs. Illinois
Illinois managed to score just 10 points against Indiana last week, but the Fighting Illini gave up 63 points in the lopsided loss. Things won’t get any easier for Bret Bielema’s team this week as they welcome USC to town. The Trojans rank fifth in college football in scoring offense, averaging 52.5 points per game. The total has gone Over in five of USC’s last six games, and SportsLine’s model is projecting these teams will combine for 69 points on Saturday, helping the Over hit in 65% of simulations.
Want more Week 5 college football picks?
You’ve seen the model’s Week 5 college football best bets for Saturday. Now, get against the spread, total and money line picks for every Week 5 CFB game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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