Every NHL draft, there are pivot points that affect what happens next.
What one team does with its pick, whether it drafts a certain player over another or it trades the pick, alters the way other squads approach the rest of the draft.
This year, there are a handful of key points in the first round that could change the way things go directly after them. They could start a run or cause a player to fall. It could be that when a player falls, teams look to trade up.
Let’s look at a few key points that we can identify heading into the first round on Friday night.
Islanders’ Big Decision
The New York Islanders will choose between the potential elite-level prospect in Matthew Schaefer or Michael Misa or the hometown kid in James Hagens. The word around the campfire is they will go with Schaefer, but Hagens grew up an Isles fan, going to games on a regular basis. Maybe they'll be extra aggressive and get Schaefer and Hagens.
It’s a tough decision for a team that has had some issues in the past with high-end players leaving but the reality is that they should go with Schaefer, build out their defense group and look to make the best long-term decision.
2025 NHL Mock Draft: Final First-Round Predictions For Schaefer, Martone And MoreThe 2025 NHL draft kicks off Friday evening, so it’s time to get in the spirit by conducting the final mock draft of the season.
Top Three Seem Set – Where Do The Mammoth Go?
There seems to be some level of consensus that Schaefer, Misa, and Swedish forward Anton Frondell are going to be the first three names off the board, although the order is a bit up in the air.
That means the direction the Utah Mammoth take at fourth overall will set the course for the next six picks of the draft.
There are plenty of options for the directions they could go. They could go with a big, hulking player as they’ve done in recent years by drafting someone like Radim Mrtka or Roger McQueen. They could go with a high-skill player like Hagens. They could continue the trend of taking forwards, or they could grab their pick of the defensive class.
Where Does The No. 2 Defenseman Go?
Speaking of the defenders in the class, when is the run on defenders going to start?
Aside from Schaefer, the top of the draft is very forward-heavy. There could reasonably be eight forwards that go in the top 10.
What usually happens, though, is that once the league feels the quality blueliners dwindle, teams clamor to grab their defender so that they don’t miss out. With a group of five or six defenders that seem solidified as first-rounders, once one goes, teams could start a run.
Penguins Hold Picks 11 And 12, Canadiens Hold Picks 16 And 17
There are quite a few teams with multiple first-round picks this year. The San Jose Sharks, Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators have multiple picks spread out over the first round, with the Preds possessing three.
With that said, the most interesting teams with multiple picks are the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens. The Penguins have been rumored to be looking to move up in the draft, and now that they have the 11th and 12th picks, they have the ammo to do it.
A few picks later, Montreal holds the 16th and 17th selections. They are among the big group of franchises looking to move picks for NHL talent.
While they may not be able to make that move, the two picks could be used to move up and grab a top-end talent, or they could just make the picks with the players that fall to them and build their already impressive pipeline.
Who Is The Wild Card?
Every single year, there is a wild card. Some team takes a player no one expects.
Whether it’s Yegor Chinakhov, who was drafted 21st overall despite being a relative unknown, or Beckett Senecke going much higher than anyone expected, someone will cause a ruckus at the draft. It’s one of the most exciting parts of the event every year.
The question is who will make the surprise selection. I have a funny feeling it will be Boston, which hasn’t drafted high in quite some time.
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