2025 NCAA Tournament: Potential fatal flaws for No. 1 seeds, opponents that can capitalize in March Madness

Basketball is a game of imperfections, and this season, that was on clear display. Only two teams enter the NCAA Tournament with three or fewer losses, the fewest since 2017-18 when Virginia entered March Madness with two losses … and promptly lost to UMBC in the first round.

This season, whether it was early, late or somewhere in between, every team had warts exposed. There’s a reason it’s been nearly 50 years since the last undefeated D-I team –1975-76 Indiana. Since then, five teams have entered the NCAA Tournament undefeated and failed to finish it that way.

• 2020-21 Gonzaga overwhelmed teams with a historic offense before being overwhelmed by Baylor‘s athleticism and deep backcourt in the national championship.
• 2014-15 Kentucky, considered one of the best teams in the modern era and a wire-to-wire No. 1 in the AP poll, lost to an older, tougher Wisconsin in the national semifinal.
• 2013-14 Wichita State lost an instant classic to Kentucky in the second round, its defense shredded by the Wildcats’ guards in the second half.
• 1990-91 UNLV fell to revenge-minded Duke in the national semifinal, unable to withstand a Christian Laettner barrage.
• 1978-79 Indiana State, led by Larry Bird, lost to Magic Johnson’s Michigan State in the championship, one of the most iconic games in the sport’s history.

None of those teams were perfect before their first (and last) losses of the season, though their records had been. Likewise, none of this year’s bunch is perfect, but No. 1 seeds Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are all outstanding. All four have a net rating of +35 or better in KenPom. For reference, no other season in KenPom history has finished with even two such teams. But the Tigers, Blue Devils, Cougars and Gators all have weaknesses, ones that can be exposed and cause excellent seasons to end in the blink of an eye.

It’s bracket time! Play for a Nissan Armada and Final Four® trips by joining our Men’s and Women’s Challenges.

Here’s where the No. 1 seeds could struggle and who could take advantage.

Auburn: Transition offense and defense

Auburn bulldozed through the first four months of the season before struggling down the stretch. The Tigers’ depth, versatility and star power make for an awesome team with explosive scorers and terrific team and individual defenders

But the Tigers aren’t great in transition on either end. They were tied for 163rd nationally in points per transition possession and tied for 199th in points per transition possession allowed, per Synergy Sports.

Those issues showed up in various losses. In the SEC Tournament loss to Tennessee, Auburn shot 2 for 7 in transition with contested 3s and awkward 2s littering the film. In a regular-season loss to Florida, the Tigers were 2 for 8 in transition.

On the other end, Auburn gave up 19 points in transition in a loss to Alabama, 16 in the loss to Florida and an astonishing 23 in a narrow win over Iowa State. The Duke tape especially shows the Tigers losing 3-point shooters in transition.

Overall, Auburn was outscored in transition in three of its five losses.

Teams that could take advantage:

• Second round: (9) Creighton is one of the nation’s better teams in transition defense, and Jamiya Neal can be a one-man fastbreak. Ryan Kalkbrenner runs the floor exceptionally well for a big man.
• Beyond: (2) Michigan State ranks 27th nationally in points per game in transition and is one of the nation’s top assisting teams.

Duke: Defensive rebounding/veteran big men

Duke has one loss since Thanksgiving and is on track to be the best KenPom team in this millennium. Finding faults is difficult. But if there’s one area of slight concern, it’s defensive rebounding. In February, Clemson posted a 42.3% offensive rebound rate, the highest the Blue Devils have allowed this season, and Tigers big man Viktor Lakhin had 22 points. Kansas posted a 33.3% rate in its late-November win over Duke, too. Even in a loss, Auburn chased down 40.5% of its misses.

One thing not to worry about is the most recent game: Louisville had 16 offensive rebounds in the ACC Tournament title game, but Duke played without Cooper Flagg, who is the Blue Devils’ best rebounder. Flagg is expected to be full go for the NCAA Tournament.

Duke’s loaded with NBA talent, but the Blue Devils are young, especially in the frontcourt after Maliq Brown’s shoulder injury. He is an excellent and versatile defender, one Duke may sorely miss. The Blue Devils have succumbed to some grizzled veteran presences in recent NCAA Tournaments: D.J. Burns last year, a physical Tennessee team the year before that and North Carolina (17 offensive rebounds) before that. Can this group of bigs hold up?

Teams that could take advantage:

• Second round: (9) Baylor has a plethora of guards — always important in March — and a top-25 offensive rebounding rate nationally.
• Beyond: (5) Oregon has the frontcourt size to matchup, and Nate Bittle fits the description of veteran bigs who have sent Duke packing before.

Houston: 2-point shooting

Houston is always tough and relentless, and that often shows up on the defensive end. This year’s team is no different: second in defensive efficiency. But these Cougars differ on the offensive end, where they shoot 39.8% from 3, fourth in the nation. That’s an incredible combination, and as a result, they’ve lost just once since Dec. 1, storming through a rugged Big 12.

But for all that perimeter shooting, the Cougars are bad inside the arc. They shoot just 49% in that area, 268th in D-I. That’s in large part due to struggles in post-ups (22nd percentile nationally in points per possession) and pick-and-roll rollers (42nd percentile).

A candidate to beat this team must limit 3s and hold up on the defensive boards.

Teams that could take advantage:

• Second round: A prime example of an underseeded non-major conference team, Gonzaga is somehow an 8 seed despite being eighth in the nation in the NET rankings. The Bulldogs allowed just 30.2% 3-point shooting this year, 15th in the country.
• Beyond: Opponents took just 30.4% of their shots from 3 against (6) Illinois, the third-lowest rate in the nation and lowest of any team in the tournament. The Illini do a good job on the boards as well.

Florida: Excellent fastbreak defense

Florida is an absolute wagon. The Gators are second in the country in fastbreak points and also top-10 in offensive rebounding. As such, stopping their lethal transition game is only half the battle.

But that battle has to be won first. If it’s not, Todd Golden’s team will run you ragged. Notice, for example, the Gators’ 22-3 fastbreak points advantage in a win over Tennessee, normally an excellent transition defense team. A few weeks later, when the Volunteers returned the favor with a blowout win of their own, Florida had just eight fastbreak points. Likewise, the Gators had just eight fastbreak points in a loss to Kentucky and 10 in a loss to Missouri.

A quick film review shows Florida still got (and simply missed) some good transition looks in these games, but when you’re facing a team with as much firepower as the Gators, you have to get lucky.

Teams that could take advantage:

• Second round: (8) UConn was a top-50 team in total points allowed in transition and a top-20 team in transition field goal defense.
• Beyond: (6) Missouri is, coincidentally, in this region and has beaten the Gators. Also don’t sleep on (11) Drake, Missouri’s first-round opponent. The Bulldogs allowed the fewest transition points in D-I this season.