2025 NBA Finals: Four things to watch in Game 3 between Thunder, Pacers

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana secured the split it needed on the road in Oklahoma City, and now it comes home… but will that be enough? Game 2 was the kind of commanding performance we have seen from the Thunder all season long, and it’s the kind of game that should put doubts in the minds of Pacers faithful.

Game 3 will be crucial, and here are four key factors to watch.

Indiana can’t dig another hole

It’s the most telling statistic of these NBA Finals so far: Through two games, the Thunder have led for 91:22 minutes and the Pacers 1:53. As impressive as the Pacers ability to come from behind and win close games all postseason has been, if they are going to have a chance this series they can’t keep falling behind by double-digits early then having to dig themselves out of a hole against the Thunder.

In Game 1, a 15-5 first-quarter Thunder run put them up by double digits and the Pacers spent the rest of the game playing catch-up, but because the lead never got beyond 15, they were able to, leading to Haliburton’s dramatic game-winner.

In Game 2, a more focused Thunder team took charge with a 19-2 second quarter run that stretched the lead out to 23, and the Pacers never recovered.

Indiana knows it can’t keep doing this. The change has to start with a more aggressive Tyrese Haliburton early, he has to be more willing to hunt his own shot.

“I think playing two games against these guys is really good. It gives me more film to watch, see where I can be better,” Haliburton said. “I feel like I haven’t been great by any means the first two games. I’m just trying to take what I can to prepare me for Game 3, just trying to be the best version of myself. Keep watching film, see where I can get better.”

Haliburton has seen defensive pressure before; the difference with the Thunder is that they have a wealth of high-quality point-of-attack defenders.

“There are similarities,” to how the Knicks tried to pressure Haliburton, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said. “The difference is Oklahoma has more people to throw at a great player, really at both of our All-Stars. They can throw bigger, smaller, medium guys at Tyrese, and at Pascal. It’s one of their strengths.”

It’s one thing the Pacers have to navigate, and do so early in the game, so they aren’t trying to climb out of a hole.

Pacers defense

While much of the focus out of Game 2 has been on the Pacers’ offense and the need to get Haliburton going against the high-pressure Thunder defense, that wasn’t Indiana’s biggest problem in Game 2.

Oklahoma City put up a 126 offensive rating in Game 2 — six points better than their regular season average and 19 points better than in Game 1. The Thunder shredded the Pacers’ defense on Sunday night. That started with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who actually scored four fewer points in Game 2 compared to the series opener, but was more efficient (52.4% shooting).

Oklahoma City began setting its picks out much higher on the floor, which gave SGA room to get going downhill and deal with the Pacers’ more unconventional pick-and-roll coverages. Gilgeous-Alexander then put on a masterclass of getting his teammates involved with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams having strong first halves, while Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins scored 38 of the Pacers’ 46 bench points in the game.

The Pacers need to clean up their defensive end fast, because if Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder keep scoring at the rate they did in Game 2, all the other adjustments will be moot.

Time for Carlisle to shrink the rotation

Through two games, Indiana is +7 when Haliburton is on the court and -22 in the 23 minutes he has sat.

It’s not just him: Indiana is +4 this series with Myles Turner on the court, and +5 with Aaron Nesmith on the court.

Depth and a Warriors-esque “strength in numbers” is part of the Pacers’ identity, but to win this series, Carlisle is going to have to stick with what is working, and what’s working is his core starters. Play Haliburton for more than 40 minutes and increase the minutes for Turner, Nesmith, and others. Carlisle has to lean into what is working.

Keep an eye on Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton had a slight but noticeable limp after Game 2. By the time he was out on the Pacers’ home court practicing on the eve of Game 3 there was no sign of that limp, and he played it down.

“I’m fine. Really just a lower leg thing. I’ll leave it at that,” Haliburton said. “I don’t think there’s anything more to elaborate. I feel fine and I’ll be ready to go for Game 3.”

It’s probably nothing, but it’s something to keep an eye on.