2025 MLB spring training takeaways: Clay Holmes looks good, Ceddanne Rafaela’s new swing

Baseball is back in our lives! Spring training games have started, and this weekend we had a slew of games all day Saturday and Sunday which was an amazing feeling. It also gave us some game action to talk about and that’s what we’re gonna do today.

This will be a quick article that I’ll try and put together every few days during spring training to share some of the tidbits I found most interesting. It’s important that we don’t overreact to small sample sizes, so we’re not going to make drastic changes to draft values based on a few innings of spring games. However, we don’t want to ignore changes that we’re seeing out of many of these players, so I’ll use this article to flag some things we want to keep watching this spring.

As with all the analysis we do, we want to look beyond the numbers. A pitcher throwing 97 mph is great and a hitter with a 112 mph double is exciting, but one number doesn’t mean much. Below, I’ll make note of what I saw, why it matters, and also what to keep looking for with that player or pitch, etc.

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MLB Spring Training Takeaways

Hitters

• Elly De La Cruz homered from both the right and left side in the same game on Saturday. We know he has plenty of power, so this isn’t really news, but it’s something to keep an eye on since Elly had a bit of a splits issue last year. Against lefties in 2024, Elly hit just .224 with a .661 OPS, compared to .275 with a .876 OPS against right-handed pitchers. If he keeps hitting lefties in the spring, that would be great.

• Ceddanne Rafaela has a new swing that includes lower hands pre-load and a more deliberate leg lift. He looks more balanced at the plate and has said that he spent a lot of time in the off-season working on his plate discipline. He struggled to start the season after playing only 48 career games at Triple-A and then wore down in September since he’d never played over 115 games in a season before. However, from May 1st to September 1st, Rafaela hit .273/.303/.417 with 12 home runs and 13 steals in 103 games while playing out of position at shortstop after Trevor Story’s injury. He’s likely the everyday CF in Boston this year due to his tremendous glove and is a potential value where he’s being drafted.

• Maikel Garcia also has a bit of a new swing. The bat rests on his shoulder now, and he added a bit of a toe tap. Perhaps it will help him get his hands more directly to the ball and the toe tap can keep him from flying open. His batting average dipped over forty points last season, so getting him back near his previous .270 mark would be huge for him. Some Kansas City Royals writers also detailed the swing overhaul for MJ Melendez, which is worth a read.

• Thairo Estrada ripped out a two-RBI single on Sunday and went 2-for-3 with three RBI on the day. That’s not important, but I wanted to use that as a point to just say that I love Estrada as a late MIF target this year. He was good for two straight years in San Francisco before injuries derailed his 2024 season.

• Danny Jansen hit a home run in his first at-bat for the Rays. Injuries have always been a concern for Jansen, but I like him as a late catcher in two-catcher formats. Historically, he’s been a high-contact-rate hitter with a pulled fly ball approach who posts solid barrel rates. The Rays will play games in a minor league ballpark that’s just 318 feet down the line in left field and will get hot in the summer months in Florida. That could give Jansen 15-20 home run upside if he can stay healthy, but he’s more of a two-catcher league target.

• Wilyer Abreu is dealing with a gastrointestinal health issue that is keeping him sidelined. The Red Sox say the labs are getting better, but it’s still vague in terms of when Abreu will be ready to go. You have to assume he’ll be good by opening day, but we’re not sure at this point.

• Alejandro Kirk had two 100 mph hits on Saturday. Kirk sported a more aggressive approach in 2024 which led to a decrease in his contact rate and an increase in his swinging strike rate. He still makes an elite amount of contact, so if that aggression can lead to more authoritative contact, we could finally see that breakout for Kirk. He is a strong defender, so he’s going to play a lot.

• Orelvis Martinez had a nice opposite-field home run on Saturday. It wasn’t against the best competition, but he stayed back on the ball and showed his plus raw power. The Blue Jays have plenty of high-contact hitters with limited power (Will Wagner, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, etc.), so this is a lineup that needs the power in Martinez’s bat. Still, he’s going to need to show that he can play either second base or third base in order to make the team.

• Luke Keaschall went 1-for-2 with a two-RBI single on Saturday. We blurbed him a few weeks ago and mentioned that Twins’ beat writers suggested Keaschall could force his way into the Twins’ second-half plans. The 49th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft hit .303/.420/.483 in 102 minor league games last season as a 21-year-old with 15 homers, 23 steals, and an 80/62 K/BB ratio. If Brooks Lee and/or Edouard Julien don’t play well enough to claim the gig to start the season, Keashall could end the year as the Twins’ starting second baseman.

• Another prospect, Giants first baseman Bryce Eldridge, hit a MEGA BOMB on Saturday. The 20-year-old hit .289/.372/.513 last season in 117 minor league games and wound up finishing the year at Triple-A. He’s destined to start the season there, but you have to assume the Giants would be happy to move LaMonte Wade Jr. off first base if Eldridge has a huge first half in the minors.

• Another minor league first baseman who had a good weekend is Brewers’ prospect Ernesto Martinez. He looked good at first base and also hit a game-tying home run on Saturday. Martinez hit .284/.365/.466 in 110 games at Double-A with 13 home runs and 20 steals. He’ll start the year at Triple-A but could push for a promotion in the second half of the year.

• Blake Perkins fractured his shin, and while that alone may not be a huge fantasy tidbit, it does open up a roster spot for one of Manuel Margot or Mark Canha, who just signed in Milwaukee.

• Zach Dezenzo had two hits for the Astros on Sunday and has reportedly looked good in left field in workouts. I know the Astros are planning to play Jose Altuve out there more, but Dezenzo has had a solid minor-league track record in Houston and could be a nice utility piece in 2025.

• So far, Robert Hassell III has gone 3-for-5, with two doubles, three RBI, and a steal. He can play all three outfield spots but made a nice play in center field in one of the games. He was one of the key pieces in the Juan Soto trade and while he hasn’t delivered on his prospect promise yet, the Nationals are not going to let Jacob Young keep Hassell III out of centerfield if the 23-year-old gets off to a good start at Triple-A.

• Colson Montgomery also homered for the White Sox on Saturday. His Triple-A numbers were pretty bad last year, so we should expect the White Sox to send him back there to start the season, but his underlying metrics hinted at some power upside, so that was nice to see on Saturday. A good couple of months in Triple-A could lead to a promotion where Montgomery is the shortstop is Chicago for almost 400 plate appearances this season.

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Pitchers

• Chris Sale averaged 94.7 mph on his fastball in his first start. Velocity isn’t everything, but it’s nice to see after he ended last year injured.

• On a similar note, Sandy Alcantara seems healthy. He averaged 98.8 mph on his fastball with his usual low-90s changeups. Craig Mish reported that there will be no restrictions on Alcantara this season, so we could be getting 170-180 innings of typical Sandy. He’s being drafted as an SP3 right now in NFBC leagues, which is tremendous value.

• Dustin May sat 94-95 mph in his first outing coming off of arm surgery. He’s never really been healthy in his MLB career, but he has a shot to win the fifth-starter role if he can actually stay healthy.

• Corbin Burnes’ cutter looked as good as in September. Some people were concerned about Burnes this season, but I’m not one of them.

• Zebby Matthews looked good in his first start with his four-seam velocity averaging 96.6 mph. That was up almost two miles per hour from what he averaged last year. It’s something to keep an eye on because Zebby has been more of a strike-thrower in the minors, so if he juices his “Stuff” a bit, he could be a really interesting flier.

• Triston McKenzie also saw his velocity tick up on Saturday, sitting over 93 mph with his four-seamer. That’s good news for him because he was coming off of a lost season due to injury and this implies a modicum of health. McKenzie also has elite extension and iVB on his fastball, so the added velocity is nice. However, he also needs to throw it up in the zone more, which he didn’t last season.

• Carlos Rodón didn’t have a great first outing, but his changeup seems to have more drop. I’ve already written about how good Rodón was in the final 15 or so starts when he started leaning into the changeup more. It’s an important pitch for him.

• Speaking of changeups, Clay Holmes added a kick-change this off-season and it looked good in his first outing. Adding in a changeup was a crucial part of expanding Holmes’ pitch mix as he moved into the rotation. He also added a cutter, so I’m starting to like Holmes a bit more this season.

• David Festa added a sinker this off-season. That’s a nice addition for him, and he looked good on Sunday in his first start. He needs to beat out Chris Paddack for the final rotation spot, which might not happen to start the season, but I have high hopes for him this year.

• Kenta Maeda and Matt Manning both saw a bit of a velocity spike in their first outings. Manning was also throwing his splitter harder, which could make it a bit a bit harder to hit. With Alex Cobb delayed, both guys have a chance to claim the fifth starter role in Detroit. Maeda has talked about being more aggressive this year and trying to throw with more “power,” so it’s something to watch.

• The Cobb injury also means that Casey Mize seems to be the number four starter to start the season. He’s been working on multiple sliders in the off-season and threw a few of them in the first spring start. He also mentioned wanting to throw his splitter more, and he seems to be throwing it harder, which looked good on Sunday. Injuries have derailed his career, but there are crazier things than the former number-one overall pick becoming a reliable starter.

• Daniel Lynch looked good in his outing on Friday, pounding the strike zone with his full arsenal. Lynch has mentioned that this offseason wasn’t about pitch design for him but was about repeating mechanics and working on command. If he can improve in that regard, he could push for the fifth starter role in Kansas City. He’s competing with Noah Cameron among others. Cameron hit 96 mph, which was up four mph from last year. It’s something to monitor.

• Kris Bubic is also competing with those two, and he showed off an improved changeup in Sunday’s start. Still early days here, but both Bubic and Lynch were well-regarded prospects who were never able to put it together. Perhaps they’re just late-bloomers and when we get a sense who has the leg up in the competition then I’m happy to take some late-round gambles in drafts.

• Will Warren gives me Michael King vibes with his slider and changeup combo given how aggressively they move in opposite directions. If the Yankees trade Marcus Stroman then Warren could be the sixth starter in New York and get a chance in the rotation if anybody gets hurt.

• Brayan Bello is delayed right now. The Red Sox don’t seem to think it’s a big deal, but it might call the first week or two of the season into question. I love Bello as a late-round starting pitching option this year, and I’m not dissuaded by this.

• Mathew Liberatore changed his cutter it seems, adding significantly more horizontal movement. That would be big for him because righties crushed all of his fastballs. If he has any hopes of sticking as a starter, he’s going to need to improve there.

• Prelander Berroa has a Grade 1 elbow strain, and the White Sox are still determining what the best course of action is. However, the team signed Mike Clevinger, and the veteran said he’s excited about the idea of possible closing in Chicago.