Though the wall-to-wall 2025 NCAA Tournament action won’t get started until Thursday’s first-round schedule, the First Four in Dayton has become a staple in its decade-plus of existence that provides a unique kickoff to March Madness. We have seen tense and thrilling finishes from both ends of the tournament field in the First Four, getting memorable action and moments from the last at-large teams in the field as well as the conference champions fighting for the right to play against a No. 1 seed in the First Round.
The intrigue for the first Four has been heightened by the success of teams that win once they hit the 64-team bracket. In 12 of the 13 tournaments since the First Four was created, at least one of the winners has gone on to win its next game and make the second round. In total, five teams have made it all the way to the Sweet 16 from the First Four, and twice we have seen the dream continue all the way to the Final Four with VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021.
That serves as the backdrop for games that will finalize the field of 64. Any one of these teams could be on their way to making a two-plus game run in the tournament while the season will end earlier than hoped for all four of the losing squads. That tension is why we see some tight point spreads from the oddsmakers, providing a narrow window to find value for our best bets.
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Let’s dive into the Best Bets for Tuesday’s First Four action.
Odds via SportsLine consensus | All times Eastern
(16) Alabama State vs. (16) Saint Francis
6:40 p.m. on TruTV | March Madness Live
Southern getting upset by Grambling really opened up the SWAC bracket for Alabama State, but we should give credit to the Hornets for taking advantage of the opportunity en route to the program’s fifth NCAA Tournament appearance. The key stat here will be turnovers. Alabama State will press defensively and try to create easy transition buckets to compliment a shot diet filled with 3-point attempts. To that end, Alabama State ranks in the top 100 nationally in both turnover percentage and steal percentage defense while Saint Francis ranks No. 321 and No. 355 in both of those categories on offense. I like the Hornets’ ability to press on defense and run to get easy buckets, so I’ll lay the bigger number with Alabama State. Pick: Alabama State -3.5
(11) North Carolina vs. (11) San Diego State
9:10 p.m. on TruTV | March Madness Live
San Diego State has a great record in close contests this season, going 8-2 in games decided by six points or fewer. That’s a credit to coach Brian Dutcher keeping the program standard when it comes to defense, even as the offense has taken a step back after losing several key creators off of last year’s Sweet 16 team. That’s where we find our edge. San Diego State does a great job of getting back on defense to prevent transition opportunities, and against North Carolina, that’s essentially stopping one of the things the Tar Heels do best. When the 3-pointers are falling, there’s a number that North Carolina can hit that San Diego State can not match based on talent, but it’s going to be tough to get those open looks against an Aztecs defense that wants to make the Tar Heels work through the shot clock or settle for a bad look. I think North Carolina advances with enough late-game playmaking, but it comes in a lower-scoring game. Pick: Under 142.5
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