2025 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks against the spread, odds in Thursday’s Sweet 16

While some might bemoan the lack of Cinderella in the second weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, the consolation for your tiny dancer tears is a Sweet 16 schedule loaded with heavyweight matchups. Across the eight programs that will be playing during East Regional and West Regional games on Thursday night, five of them have won national championships in the last 35 years; combined, they account for nearly one-third of the NCAA Tournament titles in that span. 

The night gets started with offensive fireworks from No. 2 seed Alabama and No. 6 seed BYU in Newark, New Jersey, followed shortly by No. 1 seed Florida taking on No. 4 seed Maryland after the Terps delivered the tournament’s first true buzzer-beater thanks to the late heroics of star freshman Derik Queen. 

In the first of two night caps we get No. 1 Duke squaring off against a familiar foe in No. 4 Arizona, who not only carries its own program history against the Blue Devils but some personal history as well thanks to Wildcats, and former North Carolina, star guard Caleb Love. The final game of the night features the only double-digit seed of the entire Sweet 16, but it’s hard to be a true Cinderella when Arkansas is coming from the SEC and led by a Hall of Fame coach in John Calipari. The No. 10 seed Razorbacks are coming off a big opening weekend but face one of the most consistent programs from the Big 12 in No. 3 seed Texas Tech, as Grant McCasland looks to reach the Elite Eight for the first time as a head coach. 

But the storylines aren’t enough for a college basketball fan when we get to this portion of the tournament. We only have but so many games left in March Madness, so we might as well make some picks for every one we have left. After breaking down the points spreads and the totals, we’ve selected a best bet for all four of Thursday’s regional semifinal games along with the selections from our committee of experts.  

East Regional: (2) Alabama vs. (6) BYU 

7:09 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live: BYU has been ahead of the number consistently coming down the stretch of the season. We know the Cougars are 11-1 since Feb. 10 with the only loss coming to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, but the performances have been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations, too (the team is 10-2 against the spread in that same span). A small sample size view has Alabama and BYU as the No. 8 and No. 9 most efficient teams in the country in the month of March, per BartTorvik, and I read this as a game that should be decided in the final possessions. The X-factor here, not just on a BYU cover but a straight-up win, is the performance of 6-foot-9 freshman Egor Demin. He’s been playing great ball in this tournament, and after an up-and-down season the NBA Draft buzz is back. When Demin is playing at a high level, he makes BYU a matchup nightmare. Given his performance in the opening rounds, I think he can carry it to Newark. Pick: BYU +5.5   

West Regional: (1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland 

7:39 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live: The depth mismatch is impossible to ignore here. Maryland not only leans on its starting five more than anyone else left in the tournament, but Florida has a deeper rotation of bigs that could cause problems if this game gets a tight whistle down low. The Gators can endure a couple of cheap fouls to Alex Condon or Rueben Chinyelu because Thomas Waugh and Micah Handlogten are more than capable of giving you good minutes off the bench. But if Derik Queen and Julian Reese get into foul trouble, Maryland’s rebounding efforts take a huge hit in a way that’s going to totally change the matchup. Florida gained some real confidence in being able to take the best punch from the back-to-back champs in the win against UConn, and when the money was on the table, Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard showed their collective experience by making the winning plays. Pick: Florida -6.5 

East Regional: (1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona 

9:39 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live: Every Duke game since Feb. 14 when Cooper Flagg has been healthy has resulted in 80 ore more points for the Blue Devils; the team failed to hit 80 in all three ACC Tournament games with Flagg injured early in the quarterfinals and then ruled out for the next two contests. Now we introduce an Arizona team that pushes the pace and started to slip a little on the defensive side at the end of the regular season. If this game plays out as the oddsmakers are expecting, there will be plenty of Arizona chasing the game late, and Duke just happens to be the best free-throw shooting team left in the NCAA Tournament. Pick: Duke Team Total Over 81.5 

West Regional: (3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas 

10:09 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live: There are some things that numbers are not going to be able to explain, like how a  No. 10-seed with 13 losses can string together back-to-back wins against Kansas and St. John’s while shooting a combined 8 for 43 from behind the arc. This Arkansas team is ready for war, believing in each other and finding ways to win even when the shots aren’t falling. The news that Adou Thiero is available to play limited minutes is not insignificant — Arkansas will need versatile defenders against the space of Texas Tech’s dangerous and efficient offense — but it is the size that the Red Raiders give up that could be the difference. This is a bet that Jonas Aidoo, Trevon Brazile and Big Z are not going to let JT Toppin have clear looks inside, giving Arkansas a chance to extend their tournament run. Pick: Arkansas +5.5 

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