FANTASY WINNERS
The Bears offense
The Bears walked out of the opening week of free agency significantly improved on the interior after acquiring Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson. There are various levels of risk with each of those players but after dealing with a poor guard-center-guard combination, Chicago walks into the season with significantly better odds at a strong offensive line.
Some of Caleb Williams’ sack issues from last season were invited by the rookie quarterback and were not strictly a result of poor play up front. However, giving him more comfortable pockets with improved pass-game concepts can only help. Ben Johnson looks well on his way to installing an offense in his image which is built upon a strong foundation on the line.
If Williams improves, there’s an obvious trickle-down effect for the pass-catchers. Both Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are great bounce-back candidates if Williams improves amid a rehabilitation of the offensive ecosystem. Also, the Bears let Keenan Allen walk in free agency and only added a role player at WR3 in Olamide Zaccheaus. Further target concentration at the top of the target tree is another critical need for this Bears offense after they were too spread out last season.
Justin Fields
I’m not the most bullish Justin Fields guy on the planet and probably came to acknowledge his unmistakable flaws as an NFL quarterback quicker than some of my peers in the fantasy industry. That said, he is an obvious winner of this free agency cycle because he walked out of last week with a clear starting gig.
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While the Jets aren’t heavily committed to Fields — his $20 million per year salary is the lowest for a non-rookie contract starting quarterback — he makes perfect sense as a bridge quarterback in Year 1 of the Aaron Glenn regime. It’s probably not a coincidence that Fields used to tear up Glenn’s man-coverage-heavy Lions defense as a rusher back when he was the Bears starter. I expect Fields to be a key part of the run game for a Jets offense that will likely try to limit possessions and not take risks through the air.
Najee Harris
I do not think Najee Harris was somehow held back in Pittsburgh or anything of that nature. There’s also every chance that the Chargers still take a running back high in the NFL Draft and Harris finds himself on the “loser” end of an article like this at the end of April. Before incentives, Harris is only slated to make $5.25 million this season, which is less than Devin Singletary got in free agency last year.
Nevertheless, he currently sits atop a depth chart after the first week’s dust settles and I think he’s a significantly better fit with Los Angeles than he was in Pittsburgh last year. The simplistic take on Arthur Smith’s run game is “he wants a big back” so Harris was a great option for his system. However, Smith’s run games are based on outside zone concepts, which has just never been Harris’ game. He’s a bruising downhill volume back, and that works much better with the Chargers’ gap-heavy rushing attack. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Chargers were seventh in gap run rate, while the Steelers were 27th.
Evan Engram
I don’t know if Evan Engram really fits into the nebulous “joker” role Sean Payton has openly coveted for this Broncos offense but he’s certainly leaning into the bit. Regardless of the designation, Engram does check the box of alignment versatility that Payton demands from specific middle-of-the-field weapons.
Courtland Sutton was the only consistently deployed player in the Broncos passing game last season. Sutton ran a route on 90.5% of the dropbacks in 2024; no other player cracked 50%. While I like the way Sutton runs routes over the middle of the field he’s a pure perimeter X-receiver, which doesn’t overlap with Engram’s usage at all. I’d pencil in Engram for a route share well over 50% for 2025.
There aren’t many spots where I’d have placed Engram in my second tier of fantasy tight ends for this season. Moving to an ascending Denver offense with ample opportunity is one of the spots where that ranking is justified.
Brock Bowers
The Raiders entered this offseason as one of the most challenging quarterback chairs to fill after the Matthew Stafford saga fell through, as they were set to pick sixth in the draft and didn’t appear to be a Sam Darnold team. I just wasn’t imaginative enough to think that Geno Smith would become an option.
Smith has his flaws, but he’s an accurate distributor to all levels of the field. He processes quickly and gets the ball out on time; I love his fit in what I’m expecting Chip Kelly’s passing game to look like with Las Vegas. Smith’s 81.4 yards per game throwing over the short and deep middle of the field were second among quarterbacks last season. That overlaps perfectly with where Bowers will do most of his work. Bowers was third in the NFL in catches last season in a dysfunctional offense and, with Smith in tow now, he should finish in that same territory once again.
FANTASY LOSERS
DK Metcalf
Trading serious draft capital and handing out a massive contract extension to a wide receiver before knowing who is going to throw that player the ball is a … choice. It’s the exact one the Pittsburgh Steelers have made.
The absolute best-case scenario for DK Metcalf’s 2025 production is the team signs a 41-year-old passer the always quarterback-starved Jets were willing to pay many millions of dollars to walk out of their building. Even if Aaron Rodgers can still be an above-average starter in the league — by no means a guarantee — I’m dubious of how he fits with Metcalf’s style of wideout. Also, Rodgers is not even on the roster and reportedly “is in no rush at all” to make a decision. Great!
Beyond the currently vacant quarterback spot, Metcalf has now moved to one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. While I like the route tree assignment he’s set to get in Arthur Smith’s offense, his overall target ceiling is capped. He’s also coming off the worst season of his career. I struggle to see Metcalf being drafted inside the top 20 players at the position.
George Pickens
Well, you can go ahead and assign all of those quarterback and offensive volume concerns labeled to DK Metcalf above to the other Steelers wide receiver. Making matters worse for George Pickens is that he will almost certainly file in as the No. 2 receiver behind Metcalf. Already a volatile player, Pickens will be a pure big-play chase option should he remain in Pittsburgh.
All that said, one of my early offseason predictions was that Pickens would be traded at some point before the NFL Draft. The arrival of Metcalf only hardens that stance.
Pickens isn’t a complete player, and he’s likely “not for everyone,” to put it kindly. Yet, he offers a difficult-to-find skill set as a starting-level X-receiver who can beat press coverage. If I’m right and he’s on the trade block, someone will be willing to take that on. Depending on that hypothetical team, I’d be willing to move Pickens to the positive side of the list in a future version of this exercise.
Colts’ pass-catchers
When I’m sitting here thinking that maybe we can get a sweet PPR scam season from Josh Downs if Daniel Jones starts the majority of the games for the Colts, you know we’ve all already lost.
I’m looking up Wan’Dale Robinson — a significantly worse wide receiver than Downs — who could be a Tyler Lockett-type in the right offense, splits over here. Put me in the Coping Corner.
The Colts needed to add some level of quarterback competition for Anthony Richardson but Jones is not a proven talent-elevator at the position.
At best, he allows them to run a similar running game and keeps the train on the tracks in the passing department. Considering Jones’ arm looked shot last season and his troubling injury history has been consistently glossed over this offseason, I don’t like the odds of his upside case. The best path forward for the Colts pass-catchers is that Richardson just develops into his best self after a Jones signing lights a fire under him.
I don’t like to base my draft plans on a strong dose of hopium.
Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle was my favorite value back on the free-agent market this offseason after a strong finish to 2024. The Cowboys phased Ezekiel Elliott out at the end of the year and from Week 12 on, Dowdle handled 68.3% of the Cowboys’ carries. That was the third-highest rate for any running back in that span and he averaged 4.8 yards per carry under that workload.
However, it appears that his overall lack of pedigree was enough to have him settle for a low-cost backup gig. From a schematic and philosophical perspective, I love the landing spot for him in Carolina. He can give Chuba Hubbard breathers during the game and handle a heavy workload if the entrenched starter misses time. He just won’t have much standalone value when Hubbard plays.
Jalen McMillan
Personally, I think Jalen McMillan’s game translates best to a big-play specialist, No. 3 receiver spot. So after the return of Chris Godwin in free agency, I actually think he’s slotted into the appropriate position in the hierarchy of the Buccaneers passing game. However, from a pure fantasy football perspective, that move obviously caps his ceiling.
Had Godwin moved on, drafters would have been eager to push McMillan into the top 30 at the wide receiver position given his hot finish to his rookie season. Now, that’s off the table. He’s currently slotted as the WR41 in FantasyPros’ early consensus ranks. That’s not an altogether inappropriate spot for him, considering this Tampa Bay offense is one of the best ecosystems in the league. He just has a more defined and likely volatile role now that he’s cemented behind Godwin and Mike Evans.
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