2025 Big Ten football schedule breakdown: Predicting the first loss for all 16 conference teams

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has pounded the strength-of-schedule drum throughout the summer, much like his SEC counterpart, Greg Sankey. When it comes to college football’s toughest slates, the Big Ten’s nine-game league format — along with a 10th contest against a Power Four opponent — should result in additional automatic bids in future playoff expansion.

At least, that’s Petitti’s argument.

But just how tough is the road in the Big Ten? Looking ahead to the 2025 schedule, there are enough loaded weekends to believe the league may not produce an unbeaten champion like it did last fall with Oregon. Here’s a closer look at every team’s path to the playoff — and a projection for where each team’s first loss could occur.

First loss: at Indiana on Sept. 20
Overlooking Duke on the road in Week 2 could derail the season for Bret Bielema, but a veteran-laden roster should be able to take out the Blue Devils prior to the start of Big Ten play. The matchup in Bloomington is a vital game that both teams need. A win here and a 6–0 start becomes possible for the Illini.

Indiana Hoosiers

First loss: at Oregon on Oct. 11
Don’t be shocked if the Hoosiers get off to another hot start and find a spot inside the top 20 ahead of a trip to Autzen Stadium in Week 7. If Indiana beats Illinois and Iowa before its dance with the Ducks, the Hoosiers will enter the title conversation. Those inside the locker room aren’t expecting any offensive drop-off with Fernando Mendoza taking over at quarterback.

Iowa Hawkeyes

First loss: at Iowa State on Sept. 6
The Cyclones have a team capable of reaching — and winning — the Big 12 Championship, while the Hawkeyes enter in prove-it mode as a road underdog. The road team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry, all of which were decided in the final quarter. Iowa hopes South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski fits immediately in the passing game.

First loss: at Wisconsin on Sept. 20
Mike Locksley hasn’t named a starting quarterback yet, but Maryland’s early schedule is favorable enough to roll with freshman Malik Washington — if that’s the plan. Working him into rhythm against Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, and Towson should prepare the Terps for the Big Ten opener in Madison.

First loss: at Oklahoma on Sept. 6
One of the marquee early Big Ten–SEC matchups, Michigan faces a stiff test away from Ann Arbor. Oklahoma overhauled its roster through the transfer portal, adding former Washington State quarterback John Mateer and Cal running back Jaydn Ott. With Brent Venables on the hot seat, expect a desperate Sooners team. Michigan will be asking a lot of freshman Bryce Underwood in what’s expected to be his first road start.

First loss: at USC on Sept. 20
The Spartans will go as far as Aidan Chiles can take them, as long as the defense holds up. Barring an early stumble, a potential season-defining Week 4 clash in Los Angeles could turn the tide for Jonathan Smith’s first season — though winning at the Coliseum won’t come easy.

First loss: at Ohio State on Oct. 4
Minnesota heads west for a matchup with Cal in Week 3 before an open date leads into Big Ten play. If the Golden Gophers handle that game and Rutgers, they’ll be 4–0 heading into a showdown in Columbus. Coach P.J. Fleck would take that scenario right now.

First loss: Michigan on Sept. 20
Matt Rhule has lost his last 16 games against nationally ranked opponents. He’ll look to end that skid against the Wolverines in Week 4 after what could be a 3–0 start. Dylan Raiola’s national coming-out party could happen if Nebraska defends its home turf against one of the league’s most talented teams.

First loss: at Tulane on Aug. 30
Opening the season against one of the Group of Six’s top teams is an unfortunate addition to a nine-game conference slate. This isn’t the same Tulane team that lost to Army in the AAC title game last year — the Green Wave added BYU quarterback transfer Jake Retzlaff and are expected to contend again.

Ohio State Buckeyes

First loss: Texas on Aug. 30
Two new coordinators. A first-year starting quarterback. A rebuilt defensive front seven. It might take time for the reigning national champions to gel, but there’s no easing in — not with Texas coming to town. The Longhorns also have revenge on their minds after Ohio State kept them out of the title game last year.

Oregon Ducks

First loss: at Penn State on Sept. 27
A whiteout date with the Nittany Lions should provide one of the most intimidating environments in the country this fall. Oregon beat Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship, but now must go into hostile territory in primetime. The good news? It’s Oregon’s only game against a preseason top-25 opponent.

Penn State Nittany Lions

First loss: at Ohio State on Nov. 1
The Buckeyes are James Franklin’s Kryptonite. Something about those uniforms seems to rattle him, leading to poor execution and questionable decisions. Ohio State has won eight straight in the series and should make it nine. This might not be the only time the two meet this fall.

First loss: USC on Sept. 13
A 2–0 start is in reach with Ball State and Southern Illinois on tap. But when the Trojans visit West Lafayette in the Big Ten opener, Purdue’s conference losing streak likely extends to 10 games.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

First loss: Iowa on Sept. 19
The Scarlet Knights host Iowa in a rare Friday night tilt. It could be a race to 20 points. The Hawkeyes are 4–0 all-time against Rutgers since 2016 and haven’t allowed more than 10 points in any of those games — including two shutouts.

First loss: Utah on Aug. 30
Nico Iamaleava’s Bruins debut comes against Utah at the Rose Bowl, followed by a trip to Las Vegas to face last year’s Mountain West runner up in UNLV. If the offense struggles early, an 0–2 start is very possible.

USC Trojans

First loss: at Illinois on Sept. 27
If the Trojans lose on the road to the Illini, expect complaints to pile up. The Trojans have to find a way to win these 50–50 games to be successful in the Big Ten. USC is 11–2 all-time against Illinois, with their last meeting coming in the 2007 Rose Bowl.

First loss: at Ohio State on Sept. 27
Can coach Jedd Fisch prove himself as one of the nation’s top offensive minds? It’ll be clear if the Huskies knock off the Buckeyes. Freshman quarterback Demond Williams Jr. will test a reworked defense led by standout safety Caleb Downs.

Wisconsin Badgers

First loss: at Alabama on Sept. 13
Wisconsin opens a brutal stretch of five games against top-20 opponents with a visit to Alabama. The Badgers could use some early magic, but a win in Tuscaloosa, Alabama isn’t likely.