The 2025 NBA Draft is in the rearview mirror and with free agency simmering, the offseason has begun — which means it’s never too early to look ahead to next season.
Sportsbooks have already posted odds on all 30 NBA teams’ over/under (the amount of games a team will win in the regular season), and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s win total reveals just how much of a gap there is between the defending champs and the rest of the NBA.
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The Thunder opened with an over/under of 62.5, the highest since the 2018-19 Golden State Warriors team that featured Kevin Durant and Steph Curry. That Warriors team went under it’s 67.5 win total, going 57-25 in the regular season before losing in the NBA Finals to the Toronto Raptors in six games. The 2017-18 Warriors had the highest win total since 1993, per Sports Odds History.
Since the 1993-94 season, there have been 11 teams with win totals of at least 60; those teams have gone 8-3 to the under.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (55.5) have the next-highest win total and highest among Eastern Conference teams, followed by the Houston Rockets (54.5) and Denver Nuggets (53.5). If you’re counting at home, that’s an eight-win gap between the Thunder and second-best team in the West.
The New York Knicks (52.5) have a win total one game fewer than last season, but which is still their second-highest over/under since the 1997-98 season, per Sports Odds History.
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The Orlando Magic open with an over/under of 51.5, their highest since the 2010-11 season (54.5), while the two-time Western Conference finalist Minnesota Timberwolves are the final team with a win total over 50, opening at 50.5.
The Los Angeles Lakers (O/U 47.5) have gone under their projected win total in four of the past five seasons, and their win total will drop if LeBron James isn’t in the starting lineup come the start of the regular season in October.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Utah Jazz opened with a meager win total of just 18.5 in a tough Western Conference, their lowest win total since at least 1993.
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